Enforcement of a “Zero Covid” policy means approximately 40% of China’s gross domestic product (GDP) is under some form of lockdown right now – 373 million people in Shanghai, home of the world’s largest port, Shenzhen, and other Chinese cities are affected. Major disruptions to factories and global supply chains are sure to result. But the National Bureau of Statistics reported China’s first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth was 4.8%, beating the consensus forecast and up from 4% in the fourth quarter. Because of China’s importance to the global economy, we’ve given special access for Essential subscribers to this compelling conversation between Real Vision’s Maggie Lake and China Beige Book CEO Leland Miller. Miller notes that China’s 2020 recovery was not as steep as outsiders estimated. Nor was its 2021 retreat as sharp as those same outsiders suggested. He offers a data-based analysis of China’s economy, including his assessment of Chinese officials’ expectations, the role of the Chinese consumer, and the continuing impact of the “Zero COVID” policy.