Michael Pettis, senior fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, has been worried for many years about China’s growing debt burden. But now that firm after firm in the country is facing a bankruptcy crisis requiring bailouts, China is truly at a crossroads: the country’s level of non-productive investment must come down—the only question is where. Will it come from a rising trade surplus or increased consumption by China’s cash-strapped citizenry? Or will the Chinese Communist Party be forced to accept lower—much lower—levels of economic growth for China? Pettis discusses alongside macro investor Michael Nicoletos, who asks about serious investment implications on commodities, foreign capital flows, the Chinese yuan, and global risk assets. Filmed on October 8, 2021.