A combination of persistent inflation, market volatility, and an inverted yield curve has just about everyone predicting an imminent recession. Harley Bassman, managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, assesses the noise and the signals, noting that, ironically, the Fed’s “quantitative easing” may have created all this uncertainty in the first place. And Evan Lorenz, deputy editor at Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, examines prior cases of inverted yield curves and economic downturns. Bassman and Lorenz talk about dangers lurking in the bond market, demographics and investing, and whether now is the time to buy mortgage-backed securities. As Bassman notes, we face a time of transition, rising risk, and greater volatility. He warns investors to be cautious. “The gears are kind of grinding,” says Bassman. “You see that in the yield curve, and you see it in the volatility.” Recorded on April 20, 2022.