Episode Summary

What's the Bond Market Telling Us?

It’s clearly not a good thing that the Commerce Department reported a second consecutive quarter of negative growth, with U.S. gross domestic product declining at an annualized rate of 0.9% in the second quarter. But are we in recession? Following the May meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, George Goncalves forecast back-to-back 50-basis-point rate hikes in June and July, warning the Federal Reserve could “miscalibrate and push us over the edge.” Well, we got 75 and 75. When will tightening financial conditions impact the economy and markets in a way that gets the Federal Reserve’s attention? And where can we look for such a signal? Goncalves, the head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about the journey from inflation risk to rate risk to credit risk. We also hear from Jim Bianco about what’s happening in perhaps the most critical area of global finance: “Things have already broken the bond market.”