Year End and a New Year

Published on: December 21st, 2021

Raoul has been building a macro case for an inflection point for a while now and it is beginning to come through in markets. He looks ahead to 2022 and the opportunities it might offer.

Comments

MS

Mark S.

21 December 2021 @ 16:59

0 0

Great report Raoul. Thank you. Curious to know your thoughts on USDJPY. It's starting to test 115 and if it breaks through, where do you see it going and what does it mean? Cheers Merry Christmas.
- MC
  
  Michael C.
  
  21 December 2021 @ 20:57
  
  0 0
  
  i lived in Tokyo working at Merrill for 20 years in equities but saw enough bond guys get carted out betting against the CB and shorting JGBs
- RP
  
  Raoul P. | Founder
  
  21 December 2021 @ 17:22
  
  1 0
  
  My long term view remains that USDJPY goes to 150+ based on monetisation of debts and the long term charts. Not sure the ramifications yet.
JS

Justin S.

21 December 2021 @ 17:00

3 1

Thanks Raoul, great to have the direction of travel you provide. I've listened to your big-picture infodump in April and the Breedlove conversation several times and find new info in them with each revisit. Anything more flesh on your "electricity to zero cost" thesis would be really compelling, such a big concept to grasp. Cheers.
- JS
  
  Justin S.
  
  22 December 2021 @ 14:30
  
  1 0
  
  Thanks Adi / Raoul, yes think the recent Breedlove piece is amazing. On energy to zero, it's such a big thought with such huge implications (I think you can see/hear Breedlove gulping at the idea too) that it could really do with a deeper dive. Technology or not, we're still going to be digging / drilling to some extent as ESG isn't going to fulfil all our energy needs (or are we saying it is?) so the scarcity of natural resources like oil and metals is still going to bolster prices for the foreseeable future. Maybe it's one of those "inflation / deflation" debates, whereby both are true in their own ways depending on how you define it, and everyone fixates on the label rather than seeing they're in general agreement :) Anyway, thanks Raoul, amazing to be up about 700% in the last 18 months, quite ridiculous and largely thanks to you. Happy Xmas.
- AS
  
  Adi S.
  
  22 December 2021 @ 03:25
  
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  I think Raoul talked about this in his interview with Robert Breedlove (ultimate macro framework). Highly recommend watching that video if you haven't.. #MindBlown Imho moore's law is still valid when it comes to tech... for example - sure cost of your smart phone went up by 50% in last decade.. the value that smartphones provide has grown exponentially. People were taking polaroid quality pictures with their smart phones a decade ago, people are making a living with the same smartphone by streaming / vlogging. Imagine the cost and weight of all the cinematography equipment in your pocket.
- RP
  
  Raoul P. | Founder
  
  21 December 2021 @ 17:24
  
  2 0
  
  Its just an idea that technology lowers the cost of extracting energy from natural resources and that trend is exponential. As a cost input as a share of household disposable income, it is falling sharply and same for for industry. Thus over time it becomes a near negligible cost input in both purchasing power terms and in absolutely terms
ML

Michael L.

21 December 2021 @ 18:12

1 0

Thanks Raoul Happy new year everyone!
JK

James K.

21 December 2021 @ 18:12

1 0

Thank you Raoul for an update on your latest thinking …. Steady as she goes” …. should be an exciting 2022 … I do wish you and yours a very Merry Christmas, happy & prosperous New Year !
ac

adam c.

21 December 2021 @ 20:10

1 0

Thank you, when do we get to hear the Kings speach. :-)
- RP
  
  Raoul P. | Founder
  
  21 December 2021 @ 23:53
  
  1 0
  
  24th, as ever... annoyingly, they call it the Queens Speech here (Because the Queen does it in the UK!)
SH

Stefan-Alexander H.

21 December 2021 @ 20:17

1 0

I am just a part-time investor and joined RV Pro around Jan ‘21 for more guidance beyond CT, considering myself a btc maxi at the time (due to having hodled since sept ‘17 on the basis of being really convinced about the btc value proposition). The last years gains were compounded by your expanding my open-mindedness and understanding of the crypto space (eg ETH), which basically allowed me to 50% plus my btc. I also followed you into the carbon trade, to now obvious big advantage … and the jury is still out on the ETH call for end of march (which I tempered to a 12K call). Anyway it was a no-brainer for me to have now become an early member to the new All Pro membership plan which I am really looking forward to. So my personal BIG THANK YOU to you and the RV Team for your tremendous support in navigating all of this through this year! And I particularly appreciate that note of humility and integrity I perceive in you, that is rare amongst others of your brilliance and experience in the field.
- RP
  
  Raoul P. | Founder
  
  21 December 2021 @ 23:52
  
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  Amazing!
MC

Michael C.

21 December 2021 @ 20:54

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Great report Raul. Happy xmas mate. Just indulged myself and got both Crypto pro and the regular one. Also bought the missus the crypto package so she will finally have to read something on the space rather than thinking shes a natural.....maybe she is. Question......i don't care but bets when we get the flippening?
- RP
  
  Raoul P. | Founder
  
  21 December 2021 @ 23:51
  
  1 0
  
  H1 2022...
AH

Andrew H.

21 December 2021 @ 21:06

2 0

Thanks Raoul for an excellent year of insight and learning. Now 18 months into my Pro membership I'm happy to report I can digest most of what crosses yours and Julian's lips without having to pause every 10 seconds to reference Investopedia! Appreciate how much you give all of us to chew on, the excellent crypto coverage, and the growing community on the Exchange. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all.
- RP
  
  Raoul P. | Founder
  
  21 December 2021 @ 23:50
  
  1 0
  
  :-)
MJ

Mike J.

21 December 2021 @ 21:40

1 0

Happy Holidays! My account is up 120% this year. Thanks for your guidance
- RP
  
  Raoul P. | Founder
  
  21 December 2021 @ 23:50
  
  1 0
  
  Wow, nice!!
tg

tony g.

21 December 2021 @ 21:59

1 0

Thanks for a great year end review and 2022 outlook Raol. What is your best recommendatiion on how to play the carbon upside? ETF?
- JJ
  
  Jay J.
  
  23 December 2021 @ 06:31
  
  0 0
  
  There’s also an option in the etn GRN, which also happen out performed KRBN by over 35bps
- DW
  
  Daniel W.
  
  22 December 2021 @ 10:51
  
  0 0
  
  Kranshare's offers KRBN, which is the Global Carbon Index, so it is diluted with California, and RGGI, and other credits...but it has the best liquidity. Kraneshare's began offering a EU ETS ETF KEUA, but the volume and liquidity is not good, in my opinion. So KRBN remains the best option...however, ProShares is working on an ETF, which would be promising.
- RP
  
  Raoul P. | Founder
  
  21 December 2021 @ 23:50
  
  2 0
  
  Carbon futures on ICE or $KRBN
KH

Kevin H.

21 December 2021 @ 23:30

2 0

Thanks Raoul! I've printed the ETH and BTC historical/current price charts to help keep me In Focus (get it?). I find the crypto noise to be loud and persistent and I tend to give power to the negative perspective (my bias?). Your reason and logic, supported with your charts, help me see through all the noise and refocus on the opportunity. Thank you, sincerely. Merry Christmas and a healthy New Year to you and the staff and subscribers of Realvison.
WT

William T.

22 December 2021 @ 00:19

0 0

Any opinion on the Grayscale Ethereum trust or BRPHF Galaxy to capture crypto gains in a brokerage account ? Thanks , Happy New Year !
- WT
  
  William T.
  
  22 December 2021 @ 16:01
  
  0 0
  
  I appreciate the reply , Daniel ! I'll check out the interview . Thanks !
- DW
  
  Daniel W.
  
  22 December 2021 @ 10:55
  
  2 0
  
  I am currently invested in GBTC and ETHE. It is the best option is you are confined to a brokerage account, but because of the premium and discount, performance is diluted. However, you can benefit it you trade around the premium and discounts. RV did a great interview explaining all this here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-interview-crypto/videos/an-activist-investors-perspective-on-grayscale In my opinion, it is better to trade the underlying, but if you are restricted, then GBTC and ETHE are the best options. Cheers!
HC

Hugh C.

22 December 2021 @ 02:52

2 0

Thanks for the all you've shared for the year Raoul, have a great Christmas.
AK

Alexander K.

22 December 2021 @ 11:59

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Thanks Raoul. I've had a ludicrously good year -- up 255%. Thank you for everything you do. You are literally changing lives! Merry Christmas, Alex K
TB

Tommy B.

22 December 2021 @ 14:35

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Thanks, Raoul. I've been aboard for over a year now, and I've benefitted from your perspective (and the rest of the content by your incredible team). Not only has the benefit been in my crypto pursuits but in numerous other investments (oh.. and my day-job - ha!)
DE

Daniel E.

22 December 2021 @ 23:38

1 0

Raoul & Remi, thanks to you both for excellent research and guidance. My family's portfolio is up multiple hundred % (need to figure out exactly how much!), but more importantly my mind has been expanded and challenged by the exponential framework you have pioneered. RealVision is the ONLY thing I have ever bought because of a YouTube ad (2017) and it remains one of my best ongoing purchases of all time. Just jumped in as an early-adopter with the All Access pass. Cheers and Merry Christmas to you and the whole team at RV!
JH

Jonathon H.

23 December 2021 @ 11:04

0 0

Thanks for the year Raoul. Have a look if u have not seen at the COT positions in the EDZ2 and EDZ3 contracts, highest since Jan 2019.
sL

scott L.

24 December 2021 @ 18:12

1 0

Great read as always! Just added Crypto Pro too, and was asked by multiple folks “is it cheap?” I think I had perfect response: Is it cheap? No. Is it inexpensive? Absolutely, given the amazing value it provides. Already paid for the year thanks to the initial reports provided! Keep up the amazing work sir. You’ve built an amazing team
- AH
  
  Anthony H.
  
  27 December 2021 @ 08:01
  
  0 0
  
  Can I ask what kind of trade recs are there, is its similar to RV Pro in a monthly trade rec i.e. buy / sell at these prices?