Time to test the hypothesis

Published on: September 24th, 2018

In this In Focus, Raoul looks at how the markets are testing his key medium-term framework and whether it remains valid.

Comments

  • JF
    John F.
    24 September 2018 @ 18:53
    1 0
    Raoul, I believe last August or July you recommended a sell stop for TLT at 116. Is this still valid? Thanks
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      26 September 2018 @ 00:35
      0 0
      Yes.
    • MP
      Mark P.
      25 September 2018 @ 05:04
      1 0
      I am no professional chartist, but both 116 and 115 is where I have my stops based on 1 and five year chart support/resistance levels. Potentially great place to add to TLT here, but I am here for expert opinion....not mine, sigh. Mark
  • DD
    Donal D.
    25 September 2018 @ 08:19
    0 0
    Raoul, Referring back to your August comment about when to add to a position I just want to be sure I understand your input correctly. Lets say you think Stock A is a buy at 120 and take a position. In the intervening weeks it falls to 115 close to your stop position of 112. Are you suggesting adding to the position at 115 as long as the stop level is not breached ? Thanks
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      27 September 2018 @ 17:46
      0 0
      The Dollar, for example, looks like its given the signal to add but its month end so we need to make sure its not just month end flows. Next week will conform
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      26 September 2018 @ 00:35
      0 0
      Yes, as long as there is technical confirmation around those levels. so its all a bit nuanced but if the fundamentals havent changed, you should be thinking about adding risk. The hard part is figuring out if something has changed and you arent seeing the picture
  • MB
    Matthias B.
    26 September 2018 @ 09:54
    0 0
    hi Raoul, may I please bother you with a few short Qs following up on previous assessments: a) MakeMyTrip, is the recent decline just related to usual vola or has anything changed in your view. b) usd vs gold: since you are bullish usd, is the recent consolidation just related to the similar usd pattern or do you reckon the bottom is in and the correlation turns ve? c) you and Julian probably did not talk about it but AMD would fit the parabolic move of a bubble stock, any thoughts (Horseman Cap is quite bearish but sell side analysts keep increasing FV assessments of course)? tks a lot and great thinking/arguments. Matthias
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      27 September 2018 @ 17:46
      0 0
      MMYT - As I explained a while ago, shorter and media term traders should have taken some money off the table but others will be in it for the long haul, which is 5 yrs plus and a lot of volatility. The risk is they cant raise cash and its a zero, the upside is enormous. Its more like an option but a long-term one.
    • MB
      Matthias B.
      27 September 2018 @ 16:12
      1 0
      I guess I can answer at least b) already...the recent consolidation pattern was nothing more than the mirror of the USD, thus the breakout of that pattern to the downside
  • JQ
    JACK Q.
    10 October 2018 @ 09:08
    0 0
    Hey Raoul, one question regarding the net short positioning in bonds. Could a large part of that be from 2s10s steepeners people are putting on?
  • DY
    Dmytro Y.
    20 October 2018 @ 16:26
    0 0
    Here we are a month later and its very noisy sideways play by the dollar. Why it is not rallying higher? Becomes a concern the dollar cannot rally here and gave up gains versus some currencies like BRL.