Comments
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BSYou 'nailed' the two quarters! The NASDAQ has already reached the target levels you set for September. Poor Julian must be 'holding his head in his hands'. What's next - A pullback and then higher or are we going to have to wait until Q1 for continuation to yet new highs...?
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JFWhen I read this, it all just makes sense. Admittedly, I've spent the last 3 years reading about "what is money" and this all feels intuitive now. We are most definitely in the Fourth Turning....
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AJTotally on board with currency debasement flat lining returns for most assets and making a mockery of old pricing models. Luckily I have access to an Eikon and datastream so crunched these numbers myself. It's so clear when you do the work.
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KCHi Raoul, with unemployment rate at 3.7% and inflation coming down, plus the S&P at a 52 week high and the QQQ’s up 36% YTD do we need some pain/recession for the liquidity pump aka moar cowbells? How do you see this playing out in the short term?
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MREverything code
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KSThank you. Well written and I appreciate the clarity in expressing your macro thesis. This perspective to which I can challenge my own thesis is very valuable and is why I subscribe.
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JWCrazy thought, but let's assume (as I do) that the people working at the Fed and Treasury are smart, well informed and reasonable people. Let's assume further they are persuaded by your Everything Code thesis (as I am). Would it not make rational sense for the U.S. (and EU, Aus, Japan, and other governments) to ALSO, like us, to start to invest / convert as much fiat currency into crypto (not their own CBDCs but into BTC, ETH, SOL etc.) as possible, in order to benefit from the upside, accelerate its value, perhaps pay down debt, etc. Apologize for this question from a non-financial guy, as it may have a simple answer (like, legally, they can't) but it is what I would be considering doing if I were in a position of political leadership, which fortunately for the world I'm not. Thank you.
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SBLoved the napkin schematic!
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MEWhat's the downside to YCC? (would expect a trade-off somewhere)
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ASGuys, try reading this with Raoul's voice in your head. As if he was narrating. You are going to enjoy this whole write-up much much more :-D
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ASHi Raoul, which report should I look back to in order to understand the "more cowbell" reference? Or is this something you can explain in a sentence, perhaps two?
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DFAlthough we've only seen the first part, this is that enormous macro question around debt that RV has been asking about since Day 1. Now, you appear to have answered it. The understanding of the MOAR COWBELL effect since, was an important piece of the puzzle. Isn't it so much more complex and more interconnected than those early conversations implied? But, gradually over the years, you have pieced together a fuller picture culminating in the code. As an early HODLR, I've spent most of the last three years in limbo. So, at 76, my focus will be to continue riding the wave to experience this Renaissance. I'm almost energy-independent already, and so is the family. These are important parts of the puzzle that most members can instigate, and because of fiat debasement doesn't make sense to postpone, either. Thank you to Real Vision for their guidance to date, through what is a minefield.
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VNSuch a nice piece! A great part of what Raoul has been talking about, in a written form. Looking forward to next parts!
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DBRaoul - I’d dearly love to hear you and Mike Green discuss this framework. I heard an interview with him recently (perhaps here on RV) where he ended with this very very brief note around the forthcoming “age of abundance” - perhaps this is the same “renaissance” outcome you are referring to. I suspect it’s one and the same. It is rare to hear Mike speak of what most would consider an “imaginary world” but it charged my imagination especially so given the very evidence based way he ordinarily approaches his public discourse. I know he’s started to explore Sci-fi themes with his recent comments about Asimov’s novels which should come as no surprise as many of the themes we are struggling with on a pragmatic day to day “grind” level have already been gamed out decades ago in the sci fi genre. There is this nexus of thought forming from the most dynamic thinkers - you and Mike and (including Viktor Shvets) that feels like a paradigm shift in the way we might think about the “grounded reality” of PE / sharpe ratios etc etc etc etc etc that might be simply monstered by the sheer brute strength and elegant magic of the coming age. Actually throw Josh Wolfe in the mix too. That’s be a wild pairing. “The RV fire side scotch sessions” - You can have that for free! Best.
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SAThanks for sharing this with Essential
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SvOk, money machine goes Brrrrrrr...... Money is debased, all assets are bid up, and there is no inflation? I'm a little slow on the up take
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TGThank you Raoul. Could you elaborate on “central banks …..the trap they have set“ Which trap and why are they being so mean?
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IKThanks Raoul, extremely valuable secular long term view, hardly anyone dares to build out such views and back it up...
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MGThat is a page turner, thank you sir. I'm looking forward to part deux.
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DHThank you Raoul for sharing part 1 of your amazing thesis, I look forward to seeing how it turns out, learning whatever I can, and what obstacles and opportunities appear on the journey. Excting times!
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btHow do you secure you digital assets like ledge(cold wallets)? When anything that has encryption, by law has to have a back door access? Digital/ physical gold becoming monitory hedges in this print your way out idea..More details and discussion, to the out come of these implications in a contrarian view.
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CDthe government is massively long renewables, and financial institutions know it. I’ll bet anyone who has crappy credit they’ll get financing for a Tesla because the institutions know ICE’s are being phased out. The government has made emissions a nuisance and anyone holding on to ICE cars is in for a huge surprise especially when they try to maintain their cars in optimal conditions just to pass emissions which will get tighter and tougher while Tesla owners will have no need for inspections and the possibility of letting AI use their vehicles for added revenue. My 2019 ICE car had a emissions failure which according to KBB reduced it’s value by 50%. I erased the fault code but the dealership still found it so I brung the car back home and researched the fault. It was a $110 tube with a valve and solenoid. Took me 24 hours to figure out and 5 minutes to fix and my vehicles resale value was back to its 100% FMV.