Comments
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JFHi Raoul, thanks for this excellent and prescient update and advice so far in this unstable market! You allowed many of us to weather this storm. Re the currency trades, do you have a view as to whether the CME futures are okay to trade rather than forex, and if so, what contract expirations.
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JRRaoul - I am new to the bitcoin trade. Can you recommend the best way to get exposure to bitcoin? Thanks.
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BHThank you, Raoul, for the timely update and guidance. If we have HYG puts that are massively in the money, is your advice to sell those to close as well and focus on currencies and bitcoin? Thanks for your time.
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TSI'm new to currency trading. Can someone describe how to execute the trades mentioned in the note? I'm good on the BTC side. I need some guidance on the Sell GBP/JPY. No idea where to begin :) ... Thanks!
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JThanks Raoul, quick question I know you said to cover shorts in equity and credit, but if you are underweight credit would you go yo neutral yet? Great stuff. Regards
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BSNewbie question: How large of an FX position does make sense? I made it short 15% each in JPY and GBP. Or the other way: What's the downside we're looking at? How much are we expecting the currencies to move in the best/worst case? Any help is appreciated. (Can't believe how much I've been learning here in such a short time!)
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JSThank you and be safe.
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TAdo u recommend to use futures in these trade or just the normal Fx pair ? thanks
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MRHi Raoul, great update! - any thoughts on euro$? - you mentioned last time you still have some positions on for cmi? thanks for sharing your thoughts! stay safe & best regards from Switzerland
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MSHi Raoul, I am an old school guy liking physical Gold but believe you and maybe also the Bitcoin trade, although I must add it is mainly because of distrust in the Fiat currency system. I have been watching it develop from when it was USD 10,- but want to be more confident on how and where to buy and store. Who can we trust? Please give us your preferences to this as security is in the end crucial. Thanks Michiel
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CSI haven't been in the copper trade yet, was waiting for the cliff of death. Would you recommend waiting for a bounce to get in since it has moved so far already? Or just jump on the freight train and hope it keeps going? Thank you!
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WMCan I ask any Bitcoin RVers, I am NOW interested in owning "a few bitcoin" and also is there a way to buy call options on bitcoin. It appears low enough now to be a moderate risk but high reward. Is Coinbase the way to go and what about an account within an IRA? Grateful for pointers. THX!
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NNRaoul, you seem confident there won’t be a run on banks in US. I’ve seen others I respect that aren’t so sure. What makes you confident there won’t be?
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JMHi Raoul, do you think DEUR ETN is a good alternative to UUP ETF for higher leveraging?
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EvThanks @Raoul for clearly pointing out the liquidity risk. But even in FX trades there is counterparty risk. I still remember the "Swiss event". Due to the revaluation of the Swiss franc in 2015 big financial institutions got liquidated. As mentioned in your video update I would like to setup my charts. Yet, the question seems to be.. "Where can the (small) retail investor safely trade the currency markets?" Any thougts on using, CFD's, Futures Turbo/speeders or options??
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TEBesides bitcoin, what about other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum? I think there is a lot more crypto related business around Ethereum, due to the ability of their chain to work with smart contracts. It seems that every time a new alt coin or project is released, they always use Eth to create their initial coin offering. It's so standardized at this point, there is a boilerplate codebase for creating tokens, called ERC-20, which everyone uses.
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GVPlaza Accord 2.0 is coming
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CEHello, having no experience with FX so far, what is the most common leverage? I have opened a small 15X position and I am wondering wether this is suitable. Thanks for any pointers.
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TFDo you have a view what will happen to real estate? Is it the part of the everything bubble that thrives or will prices there fall, too?
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CERegarding the EUR/USD pair Raul tweeted today: "THE biggest level in the history of the Euro (and its past imputed basket) 1.07. My expectation remains for sub 80c."
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SSThank you Raoul! Very helpful. Stay safe.
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SSThank you Raoul! Very helpful. Stay safe.
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DMHi All This is a novice question for anyone. I have a large cash position. How are you protecting your cash position? Are you leaving it with the brokerage money funds or rolling 1 month T-bills?
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KTThis may be a stupid question, but here goes. How does one decide when to dollar-cost average? Raoul says he'll dollar-cost average every Friday over a month. Is there something special about Friday, Raoul?
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RHIs anyone else finding it harder to find things on the website after the subscriber level change? I hate the web version now because I liked the separation for Marco Insiders.
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PZHi Raoul, how does the recently established temporary dollar swap lines for Asian central banks and RBA impact your thesis for the dollar?
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MKHello just a proposal , it may be good if RV Pro members have the ability to switch on sometype of email alert when a flash update or take profit is posted by the team. This way we get the information on our email that something important is communicated. Thank you
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OBHello! I'm pretty new here. When Raoul mentions that there will be/is liquidity problems, what does that exactly mean? How is there a shortage of dollars?
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DRRaoul, do we expect DXY to surge before Fall this year or later, based on how your assessment is playing out currently? And, do you have a target for DXY?
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DMRaoul, Do you think products like UUP will be successful as a product? What if your right about the dollar, but the big boys that are taking the opposite side of the UUP for Invesco, just say, yep, we lost, we were wrong, but we are broke and not paying. If your UUP trade works, won't so many be broke that they don't pay the ETN UUP? Invesco just says, read your prospectus, it says they will try to match the daily move in the dollar, but when they can't, they just say oops, sorry about you.
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CSRaoul, you and many people talk a lot about 'inflationary' effects of all this stimulus that will come from governments, money printing. My question is this: if all this printing is done in full employment it should be inflationary, bad for fiat currency, gold should go up. If now unemployment will be high, demand shock (people dont travel, dont fly, dont spend, lose jobs, cannot buy house, car, etc) - such loss of demand is very DEFLATIONARY (!?). Does it mean government printing may offset part of demand destruction. But overall how it can be inflationary? am i missing something? Thank you to explain how it works in your view.
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DDAs a regular Joe suburban American who knows plenty of gun owners, but doesn't own one personally, I've been fascinated by overseas observers' view of American gun owners. I think you completely misunderstand them. My call: American gun owners will stay in their homes and do their part to contain the virus. It's America's inner-cities that'll be the sh!t show.
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MCWith all my respect for your work, seems like you are forcing the trade on the dollar. Your thesis might be overly biased that prevent you to see clearly what the market is saying. First the volatily has and must be suppressed by the fed. No one has any of interest to see the dollar moving violently on the upside and/or especially on the downside. Plus the risk, in my opinion, on the downside is too great. You are not happy with a +/-15% on equities risk reward. But how much do you price it on the dollar? Surely the downside risk must be greater than the short term upside trend in a context of unlimited printing, high unemployment, negative GDP, historical deficits and election uncertainty where as China has sorted out his mess already and lead the recovery now.
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MSHi RP. I'm hoovering up physical gold. If I havent quite graduated to Bitcoin intellectually, I assume gold is a fine secondary way to play your thesis? Thx
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wjI have 1 question about bitcoin. Why would the dollar devalue against bitcoin and rally in almost everything else? Who are the big buyers? Or do you for see a geo event like a war in Asia?