I also struggled with BXK but did find that KBE which Julian had a previous stab at shorting was a pretty good proxy in that they both move in the same fashion. May be a bit late to get in now as its already down over 30% in the past few weeks.

https://indexes.nasdaqomx.com/Index/Overview/BKX

I think the ETF is KBWB

Bkx that is

Yes, the trade is to short HYG (or JNK). Trouble is you can't borrow these anymore, as they know they are going South. I bought SJB instead. Probably not as good, but still seem to be up reasonably at the moment

They starting buying puts on HYG 2 weeks ago I think. Raoul covered that in a Flash Update.

I believe James K was right, although I can see that they are slowly getting things right. Personally I think they "are gonna need a bigger boat". But some of the problems have been alleviated in markets where the Fed can most easily intervene. At one point 1m Tbill were trading wide of OIS by 20bps. Thats evidence of extreme liquidity stress. That bill OIS spread has moderated now to -10 I think. So, maybe they are starting to get a little traction, in markets were they can help with liquidity. Its gonna be tough for those who rely on banks for funding. I think fiscal would work a lot better although not as direct a solution to financial problems.

My understanding is that there were regulatory hurdles that prevented the funds from being accessed that the Fed didn’t even know about. Whoops.

Yes but...(I sound like my wife :-) ...for members who are building their trading experience, I am sure not all of us are experienced traders, I think that targets provide context and perspective. Not looking for a fight with the zen-master, so I'll just leave it here :-)

I don't use targets or stops so that is why... we all have to manage our own risks. If I close out, you'll see it here.

Tend to agree with you (even though the HYG option trade was clearly stated, Buy Put, 75 strike, June). Many people have commented before, as have I, that it would be great if the team could set targets or target ranges, so that people who are late to the trade can review whether entry still makes sense. Not sure why RV team does not follow-up on this, it seems pretty logical and I do not think it goes against any conduct guidelines. I mean, if you issue a trade you might as well set a target - or state it's open ended. They do not hesitate to instruct folks to move stops at the other end so not sure why these requests remain unanswered.

Not entirely sure what you mean, but I like owning the downside in the S&P. I very much hope some Deus in Machina type event (Cv19 hates warm weather, or perhaps suburban nature of much of US mitigates problem) but short of that, if the projections are to be believed its hard to see how we wont see a massive credit event. I cant see how securities near the bottom of the capital structure avoid cheapening. Even from here. Even with the Fed doing its best to cushion the blow.

Didnt get to this one in time. Sorry.

The vol isnt cheap but its not a bad idea. The more I read the more concerned I am about a serious divergence between secured and unsecured funding. I might be tempted to buy the put and sell the call, both a little out of the money. A risk reversal. But right now maybe you are right to pay for premium. God knows how I sleep short options,

Yes. Many thoughts. I agree with Joe E to some degree. Banks will not go under. However it is obvious there are extreme strains in the financial system and some bank balance sheets must be stressed. This conclusion is inevitable if you observe the Fed's actions. So yes, there are reasons to be concerned that unsecured funding costs might blow out. I am attempting to get a HEL myself, simply to add ammo, in case things become very bad and very big opportunities arise. No banks will fail. But it might become quite hard to borrow money.

Would require banks believing a) other banks are about to go under and B) the Fed will not rescue the bank. Not likely to happen

Japan has levered itself off the Olympics. There are a bunch of new hotels and renovated hotels. This was to serve as a cashflow kicker to get all these new enterprises off to a good start. If its postponed, a large proportion of the intended international visitors might have to cancel. How many people have that kind of flexibility in their schedule? Japanese domestics viewers are unlikely to fully replace international tourists. Not great to have financed such an expansion in the hospitality trades only to have this happen.

Yes he has been Taylor, but the speed of the drop is such that the turn is still quite some way away. Momentum indicators will not turn this around quickly

I think there has been an update Alexander