Comments
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SMIs Australia the odd one out because of the positive shock from Chinese economy restarting?
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PCHeroic
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DRAnd who is receiving the exports from China? This would be interesting to know, can China issue credit now to countries willing to take exports from them until this blows over, possibly putting China in a relatively better position as a leader in global trade and a creditor to many parts of the world once this is all over?
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MCOne discordant chart is China exports. But then again, maybe a case of CCP statistics rather than reality? Or is there evidence they have actually increased in the import numbers in other countries?
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wcCould it be in fact that Australia is not the odd one out but a predictor for what happens when economies re-open? People seem still too bearish on consumer behavior when economies re-opening. There are a number of anecdotal examples starting to appear which suggest the consumer is ready and waiting to go out and spend once restrictions are lifted. The positive QoQ and YoY changes in data leaving this recession and lock down look likely to beat on the upside and that will be more fuel for the fire for equity prices.
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SHAustralian numbers are interesting but hardly surprising. I briefly went to the shopping center on the weekend and found that no social distancing rules are being obeyed. No one wears masks. Most stores have hand santiser and are whipping down counters but self serve checkouts aren't being cleaned after every use. People were already going to beaches etc. before we even finished our lock down and our lock downs weren't stringent relative to other countries. We could have had it a bit easier because its been extremely warm, this time of the year and we're only starting to get our flu season as its only been getting cold over the last week or so (I'm in NSW by the way). Prior to plan for re-opening you could only get tested if you were presenting with symptoms & had been overseas or been in contact with people from overseas. There was some community to community tracking going on but testing was mostly focused on identifying overseas cases. During the Easter weekend when we started "flattening the curve" I saw some stats that we were doing less testing over that period. Right now from what I'm observing most testing facilities are open to anyone but its all voluntary. I haven't seen or heard of any mandatory testing going on which can seriously skew results in my opinion. The Australian governments stimulus package was massive compared to most countries (~10% of GDP from memory), whereas most countries were around 5%? (with the exception of the US). Most people that lost jobs and that are on the "job keeper payment scheme" are not classed as unemployed even if they are underemployed/not working at all and many are getting paid more money now than what they were getting when they were working full-time (AU$1500 per fortnight). As a result most Australians are extremely exuberant about what is going on and believe everything is going back to normal. This is based on the conversations I'm hearing on the radio, mainstream media, and people around me. The government is pushing schools to open and everyone to get back to work again. in my opinion the government is hoping we don't get another wave or this doesn't worsen too much because I don't think they can sustain the stimulus package for more than 3 months (6 months at the most with probably a lot of economic damage). Our big 4 banks are hit hard already from all the mortgage reliefs and loans they've given to businesses. The National Australia bank had to raise more capital because they are struggling (reporting a 51% slump in half year profits) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-27/nab-goes-to-share-market-for-more-than-3-billion/12188112). Though much of those losses are money that's put aside for future losses from bad debts.
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RSI’m also from Australia Retail explosion is likely grocery hoarding which will settle now Exports increase is gold and iron ore A major department store Myer chose to close trade
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FBJust a small suggestion to increase the font size on the chart axis to a readable size.