Brillant! Very clear, concise, understandable presentation of your current views within a confusing macro period. Thank you. Thank you also for your reading list. I look forward to reading your recommendations. I would suggest that in his book "Soros on Soros" George Soros more clearly expresses his views on investing (which every investor should understand) and on politics (whether you think you agree or disagree with him, it is helpful to understand his perspective on freedom and "open societies.")

One thing I wonder... all of the charts Raoul uses have different time scales (suggesting a bit of hocus-pocus), and those time scales are fairly recent. The counter-argument would be that the current situation with the accelerated retirement of the Baby Boomers (and shift in their asset holdings) and trends toward de-globalization of supply chains may lead to more sticky inflation in First World economies. There's a labor shortage due to retirements (look at things like teaching and hospitality in the U.S.), and diminished access to an unlimited supply of Developing World cheap labor. Both suggest labor supply pressures on inflation that simply haven't existed during the timeframe of any of Raoul's charts. Curious what he and others think...

Thanks Raoul, to what degree will the DXY going to 120 or higher change your equation? I am thinking this will put pressure on commodities and equities. Julian on Friday recommended a short on equities (SPX). I think the soaring dollar played a role in his calculation.

Thanks Raoul. Very clear. I appreciate you producing these updates. Lots of trade ideas from this.

Great piece. I love the top 5 format!

Did anyone else not get the email notification for this? :(

Very useful summation of Raoul's current views. He is very much in the minority, therefore either prescient or walking on thin ice regards inflation. We shall see pretty soon. My own 2 concerns: 1. the incredible US fiscal budget deficit (combined in the UK with a massive trade deficit) and the SOARING debt. The US debt is going to be 50 TRILLION within 5 years. What does this mean? 2. the war in Ukraine isn't going away and the country is rapidly running out of experienced military personnel and the economy is close to cratering due to the huge expenditures. I think the vast majority in the West are losing sight of the facts in their anti-Putin state. Russia is a huge exporter of various commodities; difficult for me to see inflation not soaring again after a recession induced moderation in 2023.

The lows have to be taken out to perfect though

Great article!