No, I dont think there is a "substantive" difference.

Its a great point. One might argue that the ongoing real estate in China is going to need huge amounts of stimulus from the authorities, Whether that will mitigate the deflationary effects...

Thanks Harry. I kept it small, but still....

Vol has been super high. The important thing is scaling the trade correctly. Assume 15-20bps per day vol, cos thats been happening recently. However, that kind of vol also suggests a potential turning point. But its definitely not an "easy" trade.

Much appreciated Harry.....He mentioned both ED and SHY in various comms, hence my question.

I think the ED trade is what he is referring to. Its the most direct way to play it (other than SOFR futures). 2y UST is pretty similar.

I think it might be "JPY Sept19'22" on IB. Try typing JPY and see what comes up on contracts. https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/futures/JYU2/contracts

The author provides the following political reasons to justify such an approach: "If we look at the political checklist of the US Treasury, this policy checks all the boxes: - Allow America’s allies to continue pursuing YCC and retain a strong currency against the dollar, which lessens fuel import inflation. This reduces their desire to break ranks and purchase cheap Russian energy. - Continue to tighten domestic financial conditions by selling Treasuries and MBS. Since the rate of change of price rises will have peaked, a victory can be claimed using a somewhat dishonest measure of inflation. - This creates a market dynamic which causes the stock market (i.e., S&P 500 / Nasdaq 100) to rise and make rich people happy. This should stall the recession that started earlier in the year." You may ask: wouldn't QT or a Fed pause be a much better political sell than above to achieve similar effect? But in order to do pause QE or pivot, the fed will either convincingly have 1)defeated inflation or 2) financial conditions have tightened drastically so the fed will have to pause. Here's the author's explanation to that: "The backwards-looking economic metrics needed to politically justify a pivot will take time. That is time that Japan and the EU don’t have. When it starts getting cold in October, energy use will rise. If the JPY and EUR are trading markedly weaker vs. the USD and there is no arrangement to change the relative valuations of these currencies, then Japan and the EU will be extremely tempted to re-engage with Russia. Russia always has the most leverage in the winter." " it is an American election year. The Fed’s domestic monetary policy is pretty set in stone from now until mid-November, when the government can end the theatrical performance it has been putting on to curry votes. Therefore, I believe that if the Treasury and the Fed are to do anything to assist the kingdom of the Yen and the Euro in their existential fight against the Great Bear, printing USD and purchasing JGBs and EU bonds is the only politically- and time-efficient option."

Isnt it politically very difficult to do?

Tumbleweeds