Comments
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WMGood stuff Raoul, you are sticking to your guns and thesis. I am down 50% on the ETH and despite the fact that I fully took this into consideration when purchasing it is VERY HARD to stay calm. All the other stuff going on out there doesn't help. You are certainly taking a pasting out there, from some former friends also! I just cant follow you on the bonds though, i feel sure they will bounce, but the accelerating debt and likely heavy defaults coming soon for all over have me worried. Finally, I note that RVT has taken a huge swing over to the DEFI NFT etc side of the fence in the past year or two. After TERRA LUNA (and Remi's total wipe out), I hope you guys at RVT consider carefully all the hype on the channel. I am old enough to make and live with my decisions. I suspect some younger folks are not going to handle their losses well. My best!
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LAI feel better after reading this. I'm not selling ;). Thanks Raoul.
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AJThanks Rahul, may have been asked before but which TV script do you use for Demark?
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TKHi Raoul, Thanks for the update. Enjoyed reading this and the context was helpful. Regarding TLT, I'm not really comfortable using futures at this time. What would you say is the next best alternative at this point as I'm not in the TLT trade yet? Just buy TLT outright, or calls? What would be your recommendation for strike price and duration on the calls?
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GDRaoul, As you'll know BTC has historically outperforned ETH during bear markets and this trend has repeated during the recent downtrend; in fact it is currently accelerating. I understand you have a multi-year time horizon and expect ETH to outperform BTC in the long run, but what is your view on the idea of swapping ETH to BTC now with a view to swapping back to ETH when the market looks more healthy? Do you think this could reduce short term risk as well as perhaps increasing long term returns?
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ASI'm sorry, I have no idea how DeMark numbers work. At which number do I double down on ETH? Are the bigger numbers or smaller numbers the buy signal?
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AHAwesome Raoul. Thanks for the detailed write up. Love this type of content and your psychology.
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MFThoughts on adding 6J futures/calls to your portfolio? Demark counts line up nicely, vol is reasonable, traders are short
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jGKind of needed to hear that.. just a pep talk to reassure me that I am not the only idiot out there who has round tripped the crypto trade and has decided that for better or worse I am holding on. I look at the chart, carve it up and have a reasonable conviction it is headed down, but if I sell it then I dont know when I would buy back in, or if I even would buy back in. So I am where I am. Feel better now. --- until it drops to 21K and then I will sit lotus position and practice breathing ---- I own all my outcomes. I had some Luna, after it went to zero I took a really good look at why I got in and to be honest it was the fear of missing out. Good lesson. I thought I had learned that one before but I guess I needed a reminder.
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NPthanks for the update! awesome stuff! its worth noting to anyone that is looking to take a starter or add to smaller alt positions, make sure to glance at unlock schedules. p.s. i totally agree with you. the sentiment right now is so vicious (i know you know :/ ).
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JRThanks Raoul. What do you like most about eth long term? Ie. Web3/automation potential, tokenisation of assets, yield etc?
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JSExcellent explanation of your positioning in crypto. I agree and have followed the same strategy since 2014. It is also why all the recent bullshit from Keith McCullough has become increasingly juvenile and tiresome.
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BTwhich month for bond futures, front month? Sept22 futures?
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AAThank you Raoul. Good pep talk but I have to be honest. Your 'video' flash update was much better than this 'report' flash update. It was more detailed into what it might happen during the next 3-5 weeks with clear charts explaining your rational. This report is just a pep talk for people who got into crypto and feel like shit because it is the first time managing their emotions from a very volatile asset. Nothing wrong with that but it is the wrong pro macro target (in my view). In the past, I have quietly said this or suggested that the pro macro tier doesn't feel like a paid subscription (now) as all your 'content' we can see it for "free" whenever you do a flash update or just talking to some other medium, people or interviews. Some examples: "Free update" on your macro framework mentioning everything related to the exponential basket. Prior to that you made call on bonds (TLT calls) which I heard you in several mediums. You just mentioned the 2-10 years bonds you started to have a position in the 'video' update. And there are many more examples. Besides the most important thing which is the rational. I have the option of not saying anything or provide no feedback and just cancel my subscription and continue to listen to you for 'free' but we will all lose. I truly enjoy RV (more before than now) and that is the reason why I am providing you with honest feedback. Maybe you think is BS and believe is ok and continue to do what you are doing. Fine. This comes from a former global marketer at heart that knows how difficult it is to win mind share but how easy it is to lose it. My 2 cents. Enjoy you weekend!
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MLMany thanks Raoul, timely and on point, as always. Appreciate hearing the historical experience, context and psychology - helpful as have been having number of the same thoughts circling around in my head (re holding v selling, exit vs re-entry, vol, etc.) but took a similar view as just 'writing it off' in my head, either it will play out and be an incredible trade or something will look back on and consider, but given long-term time horizon, thesis, adoption, etc. will hopefully be happy we had a crack! All the best to you and the team, enjoy the weekend!
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NRHi Raoul, Do the issues with Tether concern you? The recent questioning of the CTO by George Noble which is available on YouTube was quite concerning (I know he has been attacking you in Twitter as well).
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JNOne thing I've done to remind myself of the long-term vision is created a simple forecast of my crypto holdings (I do it for my full net worth too). This helps me keep a long-term mindset and make more informed long-term decisions. When I look at my forecast (which I set at 33% annual compounding) of my total crypto holdings I can't help but feel comfortable.
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JMHey Raoul, Curious your thoughts on energy here? It doesn't seem to have broken, but you seem to be still getting a recession signal?
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SSThanks for your continued guidance. I see the next few weeks as the perfect opportunity to trade BTC into ETH. I notice that we've broken ascending support line on E TH / BTC from .07 and now resting around .06 What level do you think we could get to capture the most ETH? .05? Also, where are the voices talking about how ETH could be the "next bond" with the coming merge. Coinbase did the math and says the proof of stake should create a yield between 9 and 12%. Do you agree with this assessment from the many sources