Pro Macro: Flash Update – March 17, 2023

Published on: March 17th, 2023

USB. Well, something broke. We now know where R** is and it was lower than the target for R*. Tricky times for central bankers and regulators who have painted themselves into a corner with serial missteps. Trades detailed below.

Comments

  • JM
    John M.
    17 March 2023 @ 20:32
    1 0
    Suggestions on how to buy Gilts? Is there an ETF or buying individual bonds?
  • MW
    Matthew W.
    17 March 2023 @ 20:52
    1 0
    Anyone get this before the close today?
    • JL
      J L.
      18 March 2023 @ 11:02
      0 0
      got the email at 21:30 between the stock and future close
  • MM
    Marijn M.
    18 March 2023 @ 06:30
    0 0
    Hi Julian, Thanks for the update. I'm a EU based investor and bonds in foreign currency can be tricky. Could you recommend same trade (with similar duration) for EU based bonds as well?
    • AN
      Alexander N.
      19 March 2023 @ 08:27
      0 0
      I looked for the same yesterday and found those (all EUR hedged): IEF: https://etf.invesco.com/en/product/invesco-us-treasury-bond-7-10-year-ucits-etf-eur-hdg-dist/trading-information 10 year guilts I think this one is similar: https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE000BI0GCN3 TLT I played with this one last time: https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?query=IE00BD8PGZ49&groupField=index&from=search&isin=IE00BD8PGZ49
    • JL
      J L.
      18 March 2023 @ 11:06
      1 0
      If you are able to trade treasury futures the CME website shows the duration of the cheapest to deliver bond on all the contracts https://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/quikstrike/treasury-analytics.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/invoice-spread-calculator.html Alternatively you can look up the ETF listings in Europe and find TLT and IEF equivalents on this other website (click on the listings tab for IEF in this case) https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?query=IE00B1FZS798&groupField=index&from=search&isin=IE00B1FZS798#overview
  • AB
    Avik B.
    18 March 2023 @ 08:24
    1 0
    I managed to get one of those 2200 strike gold calls at 25.10!
    • CG
      Chris G.
      20 March 2023 @ 16:07
      0 0
      Great work! I'm struggling to find the symbol GC Oct26 calls are 65.50 (currently) and GLD has no Oct options. What am I missing?
    • TK
      Tahsin K.
      20 March 2023 @ 15:16
      1 0
      Which ETF did you use?
    • JM
      John M.
      19 March 2023 @ 20:28
      0 0
      Got a few at ~25 as well, but I think they barely closed under 60? Can we clarify if JB is recommending closing? Insane how fast these trades are moving!
    • JL
      J L.
      18 March 2023 @ 11:01
      1 0
      Nice one, I sold them at 60 as suggested but have a feeling MI2 might recommend running them a bit longer? (if it is still possible to get back in around 60 next week)
  • IB
    Ivan B.
    18 March 2023 @ 09:40
    1 0
    Thank you for the update. Any reason you don't express interest rate trade via ED or SOFR? E.g., DEC23 or DEC24?
  • JL
    John L.
    20 March 2023 @ 09:55
    0 0
    Was it possible to buy at given levels? I don't think so
  • MC
    Melvin C.
    20 March 2023 @ 14:59
    1 0
    Hi Julian, I'm using Interactive Brokers. I've found Gilt Futures ( symbol 'R' ) but am unable to get a quote represented as the yield... I guess Bloomberg makes that a doddle, would you have a recommendation for us retail folk to better judge entry and exit points? Thanks! Melvin
  • TK
    Tahsin K.
    20 March 2023 @ 15:16
    0 0
    How do we bet on Gold calls? Is there an ETF he's referring to?
  • JM
    John M.
    21 March 2023 @ 19:39
    0 0
    In Julian's March 13th In Focus, there was both gold spot and gold calls? I know this could be an either or, but both trades were listed there? What happened to the spot trade?
  • CG
    Chris G.
    22 March 2023 @ 14:28
    0 0
    There's a few damn good questions hanging here after a FLASH (important) UPDATE. If an update is offered then clarifications would be appreciated. A suggestion...
  • JL
    J L.
    24 March 2023 @ 21:00
    1 0
    any chance you can comment on the preferred steepener in the US, especially which short end duration to go long, thanks