Pro Macro: Flash Update – February 25th, 2022

Published on: February 25th, 2022

Those who have followed our recent Insider Talks will have seen me becoming increasingly negative about risk assets. Putin may not have changed everything, but he has certainly accelerated it. In the light of recent events, I want to clarify where I stand on positions and highlight some potential new trades. This is no time for either ambiguity or faint hearts.

Comments

  • MD
    Mike D.
    25 February 2022 @ 19:24
    4 0
    Very much appreciate the timely update during this highly volatile time. Thanks Julian!
  • SZ
    Shane Z.
    25 February 2022 @ 19:54
    0 0
    Was just wondering about the failed breakout in gold and failed breakdown in AAPL. Perfectly timed update. Thanks!
    • WM
      William M.
      4 March 2022 @ 23:00
      0 0
      Looks like gold has not "failed" to me.
  • VM
    Veliko M.
    25 February 2022 @ 19:56
    0 0
    Sorry, am a PRO macro member, but the system is not letting me read the report?
  • JM
    John M.
    25 February 2022 @ 20:09
    1 0
    I am surprised we are not putting / keeping the ITB short on, what is the thinking here?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      1 March 2022 @ 16:40
      0 0
      Just the entry point sucks, but its not a bad trade. Hard to enter something which was 80 when its 68
  • CL
    Cyril L.
    25 February 2022 @ 20:33
    1 0
    Really appreciate the timely update and interesting ideas
  • SS
    Shane S.
    28 February 2022 @ 00:29
    0 0
    with the XME trade with the SPY hedge, is the suggestion this be 1 for 1 in nominal value?
  • AP
    ANTHONY P.
    28 February 2022 @ 22:42
    0 0
    Thanks Julian.
  • LM
    Lawrence M.
    1 March 2022 @ 05:16
    1 0
    Some questions on the EDZ2: Long Dec 98.75/99.00 call spread 1) what's the multiplier on a Eurodollar option, is it 1,000 (I'm trying to work out the risk amount per contract/spread)? Lastly, anyone here use IB, If so is it the correct contract the *GE2* (there's a 2 and/or 4, not sure what the difference would be. I didn't see an ED at all, but I recall it being GE in the past)? Thanks
    • BF
      Ben F.
      4 March 2022 @ 20:07
      0 0
      I use IB and selected GE2, yes
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      1 March 2022 @ 16:23
      0 0
      Actually I have made a mistake. The max settle value of the trade is 25bp x 25 = $625. But you need to subtract your entry cost
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      1 March 2022 @ 16:22
      0 0
      Each contract is 1mn nominal. In practice 1 point is worth 2,500. One tick is 0.0025, So tick value is $6.25 Which means at a price of 15 (for EDZ2C99) the market value of the contract is $375. The same calculation for the EDZ2C98.75 would give you a market value of $550 at a price of 22. Maximum upside is 25 bps. So max PnL is $625 per lot/spread. Let me know if you think I have computed it wrong.