Comments
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ESJust fantastic analysis. The valuation formula has changed through the fourth turning. Great appreciation for this report. Very thankful.
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MGThanks for this update Raoul, incredible. You just have to be marginally correct in order to make some incredible returns. Well done.
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RDF*#KING GENIUS RAOUL...my pea brain has been enlarged and I may have left the idiot corner, but don't hold me to that! Seriously, thank you for sharing...WoW, great stuff. Cheers!!!!
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MRWhat's the odds of the extra liquidity being added such that inflation doesn't run away - isn't that how MMT says it should work? Or can someone correct me. Would that then support the 2 most sensitive asset classes appreciation?
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JWThis also fits perfectly with land price cycles and the forecast bust in 2026. Interesting that two completely different methodologies give the same results. I think you’re bang on.
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JMAgree that if the feds balance sheet is going to increase ~50% to ~$12T, that would be pretty supportive to asset prices. Where I am struggling is why the fed would start dramatically increasing its balance sheet now before '25? If inflation has not been credibly under control, can the fed afford to do this? Would there not need to be some pain for the federal budget and economy first? From what I see at least. I have some doubts inflation is under control - housing prices are starting to rise around here, tech companies hiring, restaurants full with much higher prices etc. I don't see how the fed can go to QE without some significant economic pain first. What am I missing?
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AKMind blowing
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AJThanks Raoul, how these all converge on 2025 indicates planning on a grand scale
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BdGreat piece of thinking. Much appreciated. What unforeseen element needs to break for this not to be directionally correct?
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PSGreat thesis, let's maybe not called it code yet. I am struggling how a strong USD/DXY fits into this picture. What's the economic rationale behind that?
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KVThis maybe the most thought provoking and compelling piece of investment research I’ve ever read. I’m excited to see how the thesis plays out. Bets placed and popcorn in hand. :) Thank you Raoul for your continued commitment to your craft and for allowing Pro Macro members a peek behind the curtain. Cheers!
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RUThank you. Amazing insight
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RSThank you! amazing
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AHThis is amazing. Thanks Raoul. When you say to 20x to 45x in ETH what date did you write that? This article might have saved me from selling too early in the next bull run,..
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ATIve been re-reading this great and thought provoking report. It's as exciting as anything given the huge implications of having a sensible ability to forecast a cycle based on significant correlations established since the new world order was established post 2008. I would appreciate the community's support in helping me get straight in my head the difference between the rate of change of the central bank balance sheets around which the hypothesis pivots and changes in net liquidity. I suspect its simple, but as broker I was always there to tell the story in an effective way; the difficult work was done by the analysts who built the models, etc :-) Thanks for your help...
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mcamazing crisis by design-goldman alums took over the treasury first-then caused the GFC to grab the FED. is the PBOC in on the grift? the concept that i can't make clear is-- is debt default going to be inflationary (MOAR) or deflationary(dollar wreaking ball). the great debt reset will just be an artifact of the end of fiat currencies as we move to stateless digital barter.