Hello Julian, I have a question regarding your silver chart. In previous posts where you used this chart, the long term trend line you used was the upward sloping red line. Why is the long term trendline now suddenly a flat line? It seems to me that the long term trendline is still the red line and that we saw a (probably) false breakdown below it and are now close to coming back above it. To me it seems that silver bottomed exactly where it should bottom by retesting the january 2016 low and gold also bottomed at a very interesting place. for gold see the following chart: https://twitter.com/BruniCharting/status/1077963254746529792 for silver see this: https://twitter.com/BruniCharting/status/1077962412668735488 I would love to hear your opinion. Thanks in advance!

Really helpful, actionable piece, Julian. Very well argued and put together. Thank you.

Thanks Julian. This is just what I needed right now.

Julian, in the past you've made the argument that if Powell pivots too soon he runs the risk of running inflation hot. I couldn't agree more and since the Dec. fall we had in equities its become quite clear Powell low risk tolerance to lower equity prices. My question is if they are already pivoting on the margin after only a 20% drop in equities why even recommend buying any bonds at this point. To me it seems like the risk/reward is terrible from these levels and are better left alone. Wouldn't a fed pivot smoke the long bond as forward inflation is a huge component of where rates are headed? Its actually scary how addicted we have become to a stock market that can't ever fall and now that were beginning to see Powell's pain tolerance, unfortunately low, Id be more in the camp that bonds are far too risky when weighing all the potential things that could go wrong.

Gents what do you make of the dynamics with the US Treasury balance, as in the government department? Pretty significant over-issuance last year, which will get spent down in Q1, assuming the government reopens. This should feel like a couple of months of QE in the financial system (say 200-300 billion), followed by another smack of QT when this adrenaline wears off. This should be mid-Mar as debt ceiling politics kick in again. This shortage of funds has been driving the dollar recently, and the ebb and flow should make the dollar index, USTs and risk assets a bit of a roller coaster coming up.

Hi Julian, this question is probably in a similar vein to Miguel G's question - I've been paying a lot of attention to volatility lately and Chris Cole's (Artemis Capital Mgmt) work titled "Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk" describing the events of 1987 where bonds and equities were correlated where the crash was triggered by the Fed's raising of rates into financial stress because of an inflationary spike. I've seen your call outs of wages data and compensation metrics in MI2 Thoughts from the Divide; is that enough to trigger an inflationary impulse that derails a long bond trade, or is that inflationary potential negated by other slow-downs in the economy (equities dropping, housing slowing, global growth slowing)? Or have I got my timeframes all confused and bonds are the "relatively" safe short-term trade?

Julian, It appears the 354ish area is a good spot to reshort NFLX. There's a little gap just under the spike and reversal it did on its prior report date which began its descent to 240. NFLX reports today after the close. I've put my short chip on the table. I'm curious if you'd share your approach to this situation. Regards

this level of tactical, actionable game planning content is excellent! love it, please keep it up as things progress and u see the turns. many thanks

I have seen a chart (wish i could post it here) that central bankers of world are floating world with liquidity, mostly from China. If true, how will this impact assets? Understand China started about same time as Powell put in early Jan. Love to get your review of this, would be a big macro development.

2015-2016 all over again?

Julian, thanks for this comprehensive report. Really nice.

Hi Julian, thank you for the article. My question is on late-cycle inflation and the correlation with Crude Oil. With inflation pressures, how do you see that playing out on the performance of crude? My view is that in such a late phase and pre-recession, crude will rise and then fall in an actual recession whenever that may be, however it seems to have already made a high last year at around 76 for WTI. In spite of this, is there potentially yet another rally?

Julian, you mention: "As I’ve explained, when it comes to the long-term trend of the S&P, I use a simple metric and, with the 5- and 20-week moving averages below 50," Which Macro Insiders piece do you provide more detail on this? Like the simple metric just curious if i missed somewhere where you discusses more. Thanks