Meeting of Minds – January 2018

Published on: January 28th, 2018

Raoul follows up on his recent In Focus piece with a deeper dive into the rapidly developing arena of Indian domestic and international travel and tourism, providing a route into a buy-and-hold opportunity for a subset of the Indian stock universe. Julian looks at ETFs, which represent an increasing share of global investors’ portfolios. He also explains in straightforward terms how the daily rebalancing of leveraged ETFs creates negative asymmetry for the investor.

Comments

  • DR
    David R.
    2 February 2018 @ 14:08
    1 0
    This has been out for a while, so Raoul might not see this comment. But he has been touting India and the "monsoon" regions for a while now. And it makes sense, when you consider debt, demographics, etc. But is there more depth and color we should be looking at? Like: what are the development policies of the countries involved? Will they help these counties become like Korea? Or more like Thailand or Brazil? Or will they even stop development in its infancy? Which raises the question: what are the development policies we should be looking for? ... I know that Joe Studwell pursues this line of inquiry in How Asia Works. Of course, the World Bank publishes tons of white papers on the topic. And there is also work from Prof. Sachs and others. Anyway, Raoul, have you looked into any of those ideas, and do you see things happening in India that encourage you that development will be long term sustainable like we've seen from Korea (and Japan and China), and not flash in pan like Brazil, Thailand and so many other developing countries. And what do you think the goals of development policies should be (and how do they have to change over time)? Thanks in advance for any response.
  • CS
    C S.
    29 January 2018 @ 13:35
    4 0
    How quickly might competition arise for MMYT, would be my main worry there. Its good to recap previous discussions/recommendations on RV. See the video on Uranium from Dec 6th: https://www.realvision.com/rv/channel/realvision/videos/b1fe07bb670845b393ed3c5b3f5c9d8c Regarding the Uranium theme, does anyone have a view on how the recycling of depleted uranium would have on Adam Rodman's thesis? I havent heard anyone mention it yet. See recent article below. My guess is the expected upswing will occur before the technology gets going. But knowing the Chinese (whom Bill Gates is now working with) they will be working feverishly to get it up and running. Electric is their security blanket in the case fossil fuels get disrupted. Cheers https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.smh.com.au/business/energy/bill-gates-and-china-partner-on-worldfirst-nuclear-technology-20171106-gzfrf0.html
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      30 January 2018 @ 15:22
      2 0
      Re. the Nuclear power depleted uranium technology, I'd say your guess is probably correct: https://www.quora.com/How-long-does-it-take-to-build-a-nuclear-reactor?share=1 I appreciate the depleted uranium reactors would be different, but I'd imagine similar construction times. This is also new technology so you'd also need to allow a number of years for it to be tested, prototyped, perfected, etc. I'm far from being an expert on this subject matter, but given construction was planned and commenced in the last Uranium bull market on many of the Chinese reactors due to come online before 2020, I just can't see a promising new technology being an immediate risk to the Uranium Bull Thesis. Just my 2 cents worth.
  • gg
    gurdeep g.
    29 January 2018 @ 15:11
    3 0
    I'm not sure Indian tourism will grow as widely mentioned to Middle East or North Africa. My contention is based on cultural and perhaps racial preferences I certainly don't agree with for the majority of growing middle class Indians.
  • EL
    Edward L.
    28 January 2018 @ 19:28
    0 0
    caveat emptor.: an excellent conclusion