Comments
-
SBIs Raoul rolling the 5 year note trade into later expiration?
-
MPHi Raoul, Is your view on the dollar the same? What would make you change your position? Cheers
-
AAthe 5 year call spread has not expired....if Raoul already rolled it would be great to know it...
-
TKI have subscribed to follow Raoul's portfolio. So my dilemma is following: When is the short EURUSD and GBPUSD gonna work again? What could be the trigger? And is the CNH the one that will go first? Raoul is long september CNH calls at 7.3 in his GMI portfolio (if I am not wrong). Is that still his high conviction trade? It seemed perfect in the middle of last week (especially if initiated a month ago), but after Trump has backed away on Friday (and today when he just ignored the news of China canceling agricultural orders that are part of his phase one trade deal) this trade has also disintegrated quite substantially. So what is the ONE still standing high conviction trade that is about to perform in the next months? We can buy new FV calls every month, we can still be short EUR, GBP, CNH, JPY but what is the event that can happen and move things in our direction? Because inertia is obviously killing us. And we still tolerate it. I mean I still believe in the insolvency phase playing out to some extent (my positions are for a large one in less than a year,(long eur puts, long jpy and cnh calls) so I really hope). But what/when can be expected to signal it coming (out of 2year negative yield) and reversing this painful trend of surging EUR, commodity currencies (CAD,AUD), stocks (even laggards last days (look to Spain today))? The coronavirus just looks to be becoming a non-topic in.most of the developed world right now. Maybe it will come back, maybe it wont. Has it done enough economic damage to cause insolvency phase? It can come back next season but chances are quite high that it will just morph in some more benign form or fade away. If we all overstated the impact that it will have (it looked very dangerous and now it just looks less when we see antibody studies data that shows how mortality is much lower than estimated), we should correct our views. The problem is that trading ideas with options requires quite a good timing (and the right direction is obviously also welcome). And quite a lot of my FX options bought in february (and unfortunately not sold in the middle of the march when they were quite golden) expired worthless in the last month. Well, the problem is also when spot position is moving against you with ridiculous intensity and you just don't get it and you look for benchmarks to look at to decide for how long to stay in the loosing position and possibly not be the last sucker holding the bag. Here we are. With a lot of spilled milk. Is the glass still worth of another refill (or two) and when?
-
LPJB nailing it!. Good to see the stop adjustments being updated too. Thanks
-
vgJust subscribed, any suggestions if I should add any of the current trade ideas? How would you go about it? Thanks
-
DPQuestion: Can we start to include longer duration trades as I'm restricted from a) closing a position within 2 months including b) stop losses. c) includes ETFs
-
AHThanks for the update. Can we also have a target price for Silver?
-
DTFor buying 10-year bonds is there an ETF that would work? My 401k only lets me buy ETF's. Thanks!
-
SNHow about creating a slack channel for Realvision Pro members? It would add tremendous value to Pro membership. I understand it is challenging for the RV team to address all the questions posted here. Most are typically unanswered. This can be easily addressed by creating a slack channel where members help each other. We probably have a fairly knowlegeable set of members, who will be able to answer many mundane questions regarding how to execute a particular trade idea, etc. It would also help the community hand-hold each other as we navigate these turbulent times. I don't see a downside to Slack. If there are any, please let me (us) know.
-
BOHi. Do you take into account the carry costs into the analysis of FX trades in this PL file?
-
SMLooks like the mood of the market has taken a U-turn since this document got published. So many (except $/JPY) of Raoul's trades seem to have reversed in a major way.
-
API really like the idea of using "slack" channel for pro users and moving into the digital age. We can interact much much better in Slack than this antiquated online blog. Common Guys, for 3K/subscriber you could totally do this.
-
DRwow julian seemed a lot less bullish on SLV today.
-
DRwow julian seemed a lot less bullish on SLV today.
-
AHFor July's updates, please ask Raoul and Julian to comment on which trades should be entered if not already in them.