Comments
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CFDBA trade came very close to stop, then reversed. Julian, a while back you put up a chart or the mortgage reit ETF, MORT, as an indicator of economic recovery. It ran up in late may, first week of June, now consiolidating. Would love to hear your commentary on MORT in the next video review. Raoul, Bitcoin seems to have had a difficult time getting through 10,000 and there may be some factors that could lead to a better buying opportunity this year. (Public bullish sentiment peaking around halfing, supply of Pluscoin sellers). Could you give us your view on what lower pricepoint would change your view on BTC. thanks Chris
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BFJoin 287 fellow pro members and 2 realvision founders in the unofficial slack chat room to discuss how we are all playing and risk managing our RV Pro positions. https://bit.ly/slack-rv-fans The participation in the slack has been incredible with really high quality conversations. Thanks to everyone who has contributed.
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TKRaoul, what would change your mind about EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY trades? You have no stops set and this FX trades have gone in wrong direction - especially risk off ones (AUD, GBP and EUR) , while JPY short as a more standard risk on bet also didn't perform in the environment where most risk assets did. Writing on the wall is: Dollar is not performing as we hoped it will. It has gone against us in a big big way! We should have closed positions right on the date when broad risk bottomed on 23 march (unlimited QE announced, everything has changed since that moment, except our positions) or few day early when you closed s&p short and sold puts or a few days latter. Why didn't you close Dollar trades than? Did you underestimate the FED/QE/fiscal policy? You even added on than. And added on even more later (short EUR). And since March 23rd it has never worked. Contrary, it has hurt/costed a lot! Do you see any signs that this can change? Because I (and I believe I am not the only one here) was having the best performance of my life until March 23rd. But until than those losing FX trades have costed me all gains. And being on the losing side constantly more than 3 months in the row is no fun. I mean, even CNH has regained its ground against the USD. So, what would make you change your mind on the Dollar? Or let me ask you differently: Where do you see any signs that the Dollar is still somehow lucrative bet that can explode higher?
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DvCan't say I'm really thrilled by Raoul's trades so far. As a subscriber since March I lost money on UUP calls and bonds so far. BTC is flat and Gold brought some profits. Overall still down since then which is frustrating as people around me are making nice gains in this rally. I have doubts if we are going in this solvency fase really. And if we are going there, the big tech stocks probably don't care and will continue their way up. Currently bad news is good for markets (more stimulus hopes) and good news is good as is means the economy is recovering.
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DvI know. Although the 2yr and 5yr trades are short term as well.
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MFRaoul- you speak often about liking gold long, but choose not to carry any direct gold exposure since closing out the miners in late Feb. I know you have a long-term approach so why not stick with it?
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HMI cannot speak for others, but for me I've taken the In-Focus suggestions as an aspect of total portfolio construction, i.e. trades to compliment the bigger picture. I try to make sure I size each position that I take accordingly per my portfolio size and the amount allocated to trades. I'm not going to retire on a single trade nor am I blowing up my account, but each time the risk-reward contributes to the probability that my returns are positive over time. I have had to learn over the years that sizing is key and having the right risk reward in place, don't get over your skis.
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ADCan we get some more recent/updated trades. I subscribed to pro mainly for trade-recommendations, not more macro analysis fluff. Struggling to see value in pro over essential right now.