@Shiva: look at Steven van Metre videos, he helps to breakdown Raoul's unfolding and he has a lot of videos educating around macro.

Raoul, Thank you for responding to the questions about our TLT position.

Can somebody please explain the relation b/w dollar strength (DXY) & TLT?

@Raoul is this the same with the unfolding? If yes, what indicator we should be watching out to understand if the hypothesis is still true. I've mentioned this in the past that often you and Julian contradict to one and another (I understand the value of both of your pov diversity & should not be mix or compared, but still can't help to understand each side pov, each of you build your investment idea) . In the update Julian is long on Nikkei (and aiming 38000, possible as there's no stop from technical analysis POV) our friend from hedgeye is also thinking the same, quad 2, dollar weakens. In my mind this contradict with your hypothesis: if it's correct we should see dollar strengthen, S&P decline thus Nikkei will also decline (historically have been strong correlation with S&P and usd/jpy) . Is there a way to reconcile the two thinking? Hopefully this will give better confident about TLT.

I chose call options in the TLT so you can have a lottery ticket sized bet. I still think this trade pays off but yesterdays move was a surprise. My thesis remains as per my last In Focus, that the economy is going to hit a weak patch globally and that is enough to turn bond yields lower. Everyone is all in on the reflation trade. I still like the trade but you shouldn't have more than a couple of % of NAV in a trade like this, until it starts working and breaks the trend line, then we can look to add. Generally speak, all trades, unless I say otherwise, should be approached with small tester positions first, see if it starts working properly and then adding. I usually make it clear as I have done with bitcoin as to when to take big risks.

Raoul, please answer. TLT trade is very painful... are we staying the course??

Hi Shiva, thanks for posting the flash update. (I'm still fairly new to macro....) The question for me is Raoul sticking with TLT because: - He thinks the Fed will move to negative interest rates by March. - Worsening economic situation in the first quarter will drive people to TLT, as COVID economic recovery is a year(s) off and the short term outlook for COVID infection rates in the U.S. is going parabolic in Dec/January. - U.S. Stimulus passes in the first quarter (not sure how that would play out for bonds, presumably that would increase supply, driving bond prices lower.) - Some spike in volatility (e.g. U.S. Presidential Transfer Jan 21 ) spooking the market into bonds.

He reiterated his bullish thoughts in this flash update. But would nice to know if he thinks we can buy some TLT calls after the dip. https://www.realvision.com/shows/insider-talks/videos/irresponsibly-longer-flash-update-november-30-2020

I am in on the TLT calls as well and did double down when they hit $1.60. Julian's deep dive states a contradictory position on TLT, so this is a confusing one. Julian also made a comment about the government calling on Bitcoin in his Tiger deep dive. Julian, do you see that as a possibility within the next 12-18 months?

Raoul, If you are still confident in the "buy TLT call Mar 170" calls, do you recommend adding on days like today where the price was down from your buy price of 2.70 to 1.60. I added today... do you agree? Thank you.

I think more explanation needed here in terms of narratives and what events might trigger any of them!

I would be very careful with assumptions about when people are going out to spend. In China the lockdowns were quite short but the moment they were suspended, spending was back to quite a decent level and people returned to the malls (still with temperature checks)... Even if Raoul kept repeating some 1 month expired observation about traffic levels. Now.. With Western countries affected for much longer and with a different cultural background (just how hard was it to lock down?), I can imagine how fast this will be. I have a feeling that people won't even wait for the population to be vaccinated to a high enough level... Not sure how this affects markets, just one observation on the many assumptions that make up a story.

Thanks Allen! You summarised Raoul's thesis quite well. I'm also very new to macro. Even though covid vaccine has created hope in economy recovery, the problem is too deep for that. As Raoul says, whatever the Fed does, people are not coming out & spending. There will not be inflation soon. So we will say even more fiscal/monetary stimulus which reduces the yields. Hope my take is not far off :)

doh! there's no way to delete comments?

Has Raoul talked about the highest price at which he would stop buying BTC?

12 months in crypto then rotate into Julians Asian Tigers- Emerging Markets, Precious Metals , Commodities with weak USD to follow

As Raoul puts it, it's a collision of macro & crypto (Bitcoin).

I will pass on the question.

Yes, very compelling interview but I know nothing of the space.

Excuse me , I see position closed.

Scrub that I found it a few reports ago :)