Comments
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ESMight just be me, but I am experiencing download issues. It fails to download the PDF.
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WMworking fine for me Eric
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JAThanks Julian, I would like to add some of my own technical analysis layered into this. I found a confluence of support for the Nasdaq at 10773-10775 which the market bounced off twice rapidly in the last few days, also see another area at 10017-10022 I don't find 8700 but I do find a long term 8503 price projection pivot from key fibonacci points in the long term. FYI this analysis is done on more than just simply fibonacci it includes pivots and retracements/extensions from different important long, medium and short term highs and lows. So while anything above 10700 sounds ok to enter (full disclosure I took a short hedge of my own around 12000 so am in the situation of repositioning my short after taking profits at 10770), I would be looking to see a clear break below 10700 and a daily close below that level to confirm the market is likely heading to the next target areas you are proposing.
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MDCan you give an equivalent level for say, QQQ?
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nwA Bold statement, and for what its worth I have been paying my tuition fees (so to speak) by day/three day bouncing with the Nasdaq- as a prelude to taking this position in more size. I will need to reduce exposure/give some back on Silver and Gold Miners (still a good bet long term, but too high a short term correlation); but this advice I will follow- and if it goes wrong take comfort of gains on out long term portfolio holdings.
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DJDoes anyone have any assumption as to the time horizon here? For instance if I were looking into put options, would this be a post-election type of play?
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DEI'm relatively new to this. Is put options would you guys would recommend using for this trade? Or is there another/better way to do this? Thank you!
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bbwould appreciate more specifics on many recommendations. your short TLT or go long tbt was ok, but no stop level on tbt, nor level if you do it via futures. is this supposed to be a futures trade, or short the ndaq, which is at 123 now, then stop at what. if buying puts, then expiration date? if inverse etf PSQ, stop at what.
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bbsold 5 e mini nadsdaqfutures
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MLMany thanks Julian! Cheers
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RLThanks for the bold perspective...I bought some puts about 6 weeks ago and just took profits as they helped me cover this first leg down. I fully expect a bounce as you indicate but at some point the chickens come home to roost. Key for me right now is not be dogmatic, I have longs and shorts simultaneously but against different timelines. This allows the situation to mature and I can cut trades that aren't working as data comes in.
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JMHi Julian, what if we have series of earnings beat? Is this the potential risk to the short nasdaq trade?
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JMHi Julian, in which stage do you think bitcoin is in under Kindleberger’s Manias, Panics, and Crashes framework?
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JFSeeing the Nasdaq today it seems like you timed this perfectly!
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mpJulian et al., New to this also, No experience with shorts. How would you play this using Puts? Thanks so much.