Flash Update – July 21, 2020

Published on: July 21st, 2020

Raoul provides a quick update on some new trades he’s adding to his portfolio, including precious metals and cryptocurrencies, and a few others that he’s cleaned up.

Comments

  • MD
    Mike D.
    21 July 2020 @ 17:06
    8 0
    @Raoul - I didn't see an update on the 2 year treasury 110.5 calls expiring August 21, 2020. Is your thought to continue to hold these calls as they stand until expiry, or are you recommending a roll or a sale for capital preservation? Thanks very much.
    • MD
      Mike D.
      21 July 2020 @ 20:23
      2 0
      Thanks for the response Raoul. You probably see the same thing I do ... 2 year yield seems to rise overnight, move downward during the day, making lower highs and lower lows as a trend. Frustrating to watch it move so slowly, but it does indeed seem to be moving in the desired direction. I agree, seems to be worth hanging on at least for now as the insolvency phase approaches.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 July 2020 @ 17:52
      4 0
      Im holding for now..
  • MB
    Mark B.
    21 July 2020 @ 17:48
    4 0
    Raoul puzzled like others I suspect. For your bond thesis to work + option bond trade, likely as not you need an "event" that markets move so the Fed can then reactively address by way of retrospective, policy alteration etc. (See excellent Jeff Snider RV interview) All of which is then validates your bond move. But without Bond move not a huge amount happens. This event is more than likely as a result of some kind of "fear" event / move due to either Covid directly, case / deaths increasing, vaccines not working (herretical & treasonable thought I know!) Insolvency crisis beginning to be felt, equities selling off (never happens!) etc. If none of these "fear" events happen, hard to see how or why Bonds move. So to my eye if Bonds have / need to move, that move is more than likely associated with some form of Risk OFF event, in which case a nearterm need for liquidity means phisical Gold and Silver likely sold down in dash for cash in part due to their having next day settlment, especially if there is a severe liquidity squeeze where the peak time period for this to happen is Aug - Oct time frame, centered around or just before Sept Quarter end i.e. dead ahead of us. If all this is true as the March fall suggests it might be, then buying these assets now seems odd as all would likely come under nearterm pressure irrespctive of long term view???
    • MB
      Mark B.
      22 July 2020 @ 00:08
      4 0
      Raoul, Thanks for the answer and view. I will politely differ and disagree. Few people really graps the immence $ based / value and wealth destruction that has happened across the globe. Comparitively its probably x10 compared to the 3 / 4 Trillion of FED $ priniting which are Bank reserves and importantly NOT actual $ hence no inflation, only deflation. Financial Institutions have been in a Goldylox period, but at Sept Q end will have to straighten their books and with little or NO Net (its the net new Euro $ creation that matters - created as you know by new landing - replacing existing lending just stops existing problem getting worse, and it is getting worse by the way!) There is insufficient net new lending to create needed Euro $ as European Banks have no risk appetite to lend, so dont, which will lead to ANOTHER liquidity event as well as a solvency event becasue ironically their failure to lend has a feed back loop into their available reserves! - Nasty problem with no real solution! Re Gold... The issue you have perhaps not fully considered is that its the tail that wags the dog... Gold & Silver futures markets by dollar value traded and open positions probably x50 / 100 times larger than physical, so futures determine price, and that market and 99% of its participants are leveraged and also importantly embeded into all other Risk on markets so impact flows across asset classes and their positions / portfolio, so almost ANY significant Risk OFF event impacts Gold price by atleast equal percentage to that of SPX if SPX move exceeds greater than 15% where problem is compounded if move is fast and poeple unable to adjust risk positions on the way down (It will be like this as markets have no depth or liquidity as algo's provide 95% of MM and pull all bids when vol rises creating perfect storm!) Other problem here is in a real immediate equity sell off you sell what you can, not what you want to, and their will always be a bid for Gold precisely because people now want it... so in these few days the buyers not the sellers will decide price, applies especially to minners too. The other big problem with the Gold trade is EVERYONE is now in it or getting into it! MM's who have been manipulating it along with CB's for years, WILL NOT miss the chance to give the price a total BASHING because they want / need people to keep faith with their Fiat currency, so what better way than shaking peoples resolve in the safe haven they thought was going to protect them! Finally MM's are HUGELY short of gold and need to buy it back at cheaper prices... If you dont beleive me go and ask Bank of England how they have had to lend HSBC a rumoured $200bln of Gold to back GLD and Comex furtures positions! HSBC are far more bust than even Kyle Bass thinks they are! If we have any sort of significant Risk OFF event similar in scope and depth to March you will see GOLD and SILVER take a pasting short term not least because its in the interests of the PLAYERS that can manipulate its price at scale, the CB's to do so. They will try and run the stops on as many over levered holders to intentionally force them out of their positions as possible.... I have been long Gold for 3 years, I am scalling out of it now, along with my minners. I will happily wager you a $ on what happens to Gold and Silver price if we have a big Risk OFF moment this fall... Which I 100% agree with you about BTW.... just not on nearterm price of Gold... may the best "blagger" win! Finally my intention is to be a buyer on the fall and replace my position with much more "participation" than I sold but using same amount of $. Of course I might be wrong especially if no big Risk off event occurs! P.S. Sad to say but same will happen to Crypto prices too for exactly the same immediate liquidity reasons caused by leverage of existing holders but here % move will be much greater as markets dont have same degree of immediate depth and scale. Again if I am correct I am a buyer but only at 50% off existing levels... and no one expects that which is of course why it happens... but you know that because you have been around Mkts forever. Best and thanks again, really love RV just struggle to keep up!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 July 2020 @ 21:54
      4 0
      Again, I think that gold selling off happens in the liquidity event, which is behind us and rallies in the solvency event, which is ahead of us. Gold has no creditors.
    • MB
      Mark B.
      21 July 2020 @ 17:55
      0 0
      Addendum... For same / related reasons not quite clear why you are questioning your dollar thesis at this juncture. Surely the Bond event (market of truth) is exactly the reason and time period that it would then begin to work...
    • JI
      Janne I.
      21 July 2020 @ 17:52
      3 0
      Knowing volatility on ETH you might get it 50% cheaper after another leg down on S&P 500
  • TW
    Tim W.
    21 July 2020 @ 18:14
    0 0
    I get and agree with Raoul's view & Brent Johnson's milkshake, but I wonder if that requires big crisis (then it will rise). This piece made me recall Raoul describing the Fed being WITH him on his bond trade, but here the Fed is against him. Forget dual mandate, that has been baloney for awhile. Currency debasement is Job#1 for all CBs, especially the Fed, for whom it has become a matter of national security. My view is however tempered by Brent's admonition that currency devaluation is a relative, not absolute game. So I wonder if it just hovers in the band until enough crises coalesce?
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      22 July 2020 @ 12:49
      0 0
      In a recent interview i noted that Brent started adding a time frame of "inside the next two to three years" on the US$ rising. That is a shift from his previous position, that Luke Gromen (US$ bear) was early. Yes, like you, i suspect it requires a real crisis for there to be a flight to the US$.
  • AS
    Alexandru S.
    21 July 2020 @ 18:20
    2 0
    Galaxy up 32% today... still a buy?
    • BK
      Brian K.
      23 July 2020 @ 12:41
      0 0
      I’m on the channel, which has been great. Bought a starter position in Galaxy yesterday.
    • JW
      JW2 W.
      22 July 2020 @ 19:28
      1 0
      Join the Slack channel. I think Galaxy is a buy if you are bullish on BTC (they hold over 13K BTC) and if you believe in the development of the crypto space in general as they have invested in many projects. For a good overview, see https://www.theblockcrypto.com/daily/70451/galaxy-digitals-next-step-on-the-road-to-becoming-the-goldman-sachs-of-crypto-prime-brokerage
    • BK
      Brian K.
      21 July 2020 @ 20:21
      0 0
      Dang. Been thinking about Galaxy for a while, but hadn't pulled the trigger. Was going to buy based on RP's rec, but that is a big jump.
  • KH
    Kavi H.
    21 July 2020 @ 18:28
    1 0
    Hopefully Raoul wont be as late to get out from the Dollar Trade as he was late to the silver trade. (I know I know time frames / portfolio construction / etc) but still....... he should clarify and explain his view on inflation vs deflation in more detail considering until now felt that we are heading into a deflationary event and gold works in deflation and inflation but silver only in inflation.
  • JR
    Jason R.
    21 July 2020 @ 18:52
    2 1
    Raoul, Thanks for the update. Given this and your other piece regarding the insolvency phase, what is your take on the regional banking sector in the U.S. and perhaps shorting the regional banks/financial co's through buying FAZ or similar? I can't see how the Russell 1000 FSI continues to perform given what is happening in the broader economy, especially over the next 6-18 months.
    • JR
      Jason R.
      22 July 2020 @ 00:53
      0 0
      Yes, I see that. So hard to be patient and wait with the nonsense that is going on, but prudence requires the discipline to wait for the validation in the pattern. Thanks for the reply. Cheers!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 July 2020 @ 21:52
      0 0
      Im itching to short KRE... but it hasn't yet broken support.
  • ip
    ivo p.
    21 July 2020 @ 18:57
    4 1
    Wow, this one hurts.... As a life long gold investor I got stopped out in the march selloff and I didnt get back in the gold/silver trade because I believe in; the insolvency fase, deflation and a strong dollar (basically Raouls vision). Those events are not going to help the precious metals.... So I'm flabbergasted you pulled the trigger on the pm today.
    • ip
      ivo p.
      22 July 2020 @ 07:59
      0 0
      Yes you have. Respect you have the balls to pull the trigger here.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 July 2020 @ 21:51
      7 0
      I have repeated many many times that I think gold performs in deflation. Everyone else is attaching a different narrative than mine.
  • OA
    Obai A.
    21 July 2020 @ 19:26
    0 0
    We own a very small business in one of the rich middle eastern countries. Deflation is what We see we just need time to realize that sales and numbers are never going to be back the way they used to be except for small number of innovative companies. However, I’m worried about the artificial inflation of commodities to offset the lost numbers especially when the population of the world are still the same! There’s a chance of hyper inflation or very expensive commodities! P.s I am not an economist and 99.9% chance I am wrong
  • SC
    Salvatore C.
    21 July 2020 @ 20:23
    3 0
    Hi Raoul, I am also surprised - like John T. - that you pulled the trigger, especially after your recent updates and reports confirming your mid-term/long-term view. Your macro analysis and vision made and makes a lot of sense to me, so your approach to stick to a thesis and be consistent as well as stay patient. After the March sell-off, I was also waiting for a deflationary bust before going back into the gold/silver trade. So I am somewhat confused now...
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 July 2020 @ 21:50
      5 0
      Don't overthink inflation/deflation. PM's are rising because of pricing, not inflation, in my view. Silver happens to be more reflationary in nature than gold but can still do well in a deflation environment if the CB's are printing like crazy. It has a store of value.
  • PB
    Phil B.
    21 July 2020 @ 20:34
    0 0
    Thank you for the update, Raoul. If the USD trade reaches your threshold on the downside and you sell, l expect you'll let us know in a Daily Briefing, interview, or update. I'm hanging on to my USD position but plan on selling if you call it.
    • NK
      Niro K.
      23 July 2020 @ 05:36
      0 0
      Only when if the momentum in the equities market will turn to the down side we will probably see the USD start moving upwards especially against the Aus/Cad , in a way if you are bullish on the current rally you better close that position if you think it will turn so let it run .....Im still bearish ! i hate that optimism! you might as well call it stupidisim ;) Im in Sydney Australia , second wave is uppon aus Melbourn VIC is CLOSED OFF for 2 weeks already while Sydney's numbers are slowly creeping up restriction get reinstated and in my mind its only a matter of time untill lockdown again in Syd so why would we be optimistic?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 July 2020 @ 21:49
      1 0
      Im watching with anguish. If I didn't have a position I'd be trying the dollar from the long side here but Im close to having to close out and wait for another day....
  • AA
    Alberto A.
    21 July 2020 @ 20:40
    3 0
    Gold has been a great trade for a while along with the gold miners (also Franco Nevada). It seems the dollar continues to hold and breaking into bearish territory and not the opposite. Timing really matters; I had been short the aussie, the euro, etc, but my entry points where off and suffering quite a bit. Great lesson. The silver trade does puzzle me as it is an inflationary trade and even though I understand it complements the portfolio against the bond (aug calls) it feels that it is making Raoul double think his thesis. It would be great to understand where he stands now as his framework/thesis seems that is not holding up. BTW....as he said we have had a great year so Thank You Raoul...and I understand it has to be tough to maybe be wrong this time.
  • BK
    Bruce K.
    21 July 2020 @ 21:30
    13 0
    I've been invested in PMs for two decades, and here are some thoughts for folks to consider. Your mileage may vary, past performance not an indication of future returns, do your own due diligence. Gold bullion has always anchored my PM position. Paper bullion is 'OK' though everyone should own some physical. Gold bullion has the lowest volatility in the PM spectrum, so it has the lowest likelihood of getting shaken loose. This is the CORE of my PM position. Gold equities are a VERY different animal than gold bullion. The old "gold equities are a 3x leveraged play on gold bullion" stopped working ages ago. I use gold equities as a "trade kicker" to my "investment bullion" position. I treat them separately and size them accordingly. Silver bullion is a WILD animal compared to gold bullion. Silver is an "E Ticket Ride" for those old enough to known the term. For a long time, I held silver bullion as an investment. Of late, I've held it more as a trade. Silver equities are the craziest of the lot. Take a peek at PAAS and SILV for reference. Size carefully.
    • BK
      Bruce K.
      21 July 2020 @ 21:45
      4 0
      I give wide berth to the junior miners. Without extraordinarily solid due diligence, they are pure speculations IMHO. The majors offer AMPLE excitement, why go looking for a heart attack? ;-)
    • ly
      lena y.
      21 July 2020 @ 21:38
      1 0
      Thanks for your thoughts! How do you size major, junior, and micro miners?
  • ly
    lena y.
    21 July 2020 @ 21:45
    0 0
    I bought Galaxy Digital because I like what I heard from Mike in RV interviews and Crypto Gathering. The trading was very thin till it reaches into the TSX from the Canadian venture exchange. Place order accordingly.
  • MC
    Mike C.
    21 July 2020 @ 23:56
    1 0
    Raoul, can you please find an expert for a conversation on USDCNY USDCNH. To be a USD bear it implies being a Yuan bull. But in this so called reflation in 2020 China is not providing the fiscal stimulus to create the demand like it did in 09 and 16. What gives? Thank you.
    • SN
      SAT N.
      22 July 2020 @ 03:26
      0 0
      Makes sense.
    • MC
      Mike C.
      22 July 2020 @ 00:36
      4 0
      $500bn is just plugging a hole. The 2009/10 stimulus was 12.5% of chinese gdp at the time. China gdp in 2019 was 14.3 trillion (there abouts). So a stimulus package of the same size as 2009/10 would need to be $1.78 trillion. And this contraction isneven bigger than then.
    • SN
      SAT N.
      22 July 2020 @ 00:04
      0 0
      China did a $500 billion stimulus in May https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3085654/coronavirus-china-unveils-us500-billion-fiscal-stimulus
  • SN
    SAT N.
    22 July 2020 @ 00:03
    7 1
    If you are not already in Silver, entering now has the risk of becoming a FOMO trade.
  • GJ
    Gino J.
    22 July 2020 @ 04:08
    7 0
    Raoul, Don't worry about being right or wrong about your framework - Focus on risk vs. reward! Your framework about the U.S. dollar may have been sound, but you are dealing with highly unusual circumstances. I don't think your distinguished career ever exposed you to the Trump & Covid-19 phenomenas. "We can never really be prepared for that which is wholly new. We have to adjust ourselves, and every adjustment is a crisis in self-esteem: We undergo a test, we have to prove ourselves. It need inordinate left-confidence to face drastic change without inner trembling"....quote from Eric Hoffer
  • CS
    C S.
    22 July 2020 @ 05:07
    5 3
    Thank you for the update but i cannot stop thinking that these recommendations must have been given back in March-April 2020.
  • hb
    hilde b.
    22 July 2020 @ 05:28
    0 0
    Hi Raoul, Nice you like and recommend silver here. Would be nice to have a parabolic move here. Just like to ask , in a hyperinflation does gold than better than silver, or would both do very well ? Thanks for your work, such a high quality content !
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 July 2020 @ 14:44
      1 0
      Im not a hyperinflation person at all, but in theory, probably both would do well as a hyperinflation is a complete currency collapse.
  • BF
    Brad F.
    22 July 2020 @ 19:16
    3 1
    Join the conversation with 434 other RV Pro members, 2 RV founders and 2 RV Teammates in the free RV Fans Slack group: https://bit.ly/slack-rv-fans
    • IB
      Ivan B.
      30 July 2020 @ 16:46
      1 0
      Try this one https://join.slack.com/t/rvfans/shared_invite/zt-frwuzh9y-JppjcfJ6RX2K4ssBt7p7_w
    • DR
      David R.
      24 July 2020 @ 09:33
      1 0
      Dead link still. Please re-post! Thank you.
    • YJ
      Yuan J.
      23 July 2020 @ 00:47
      4 0
      The link is no longer active, can you provide links as such via email ?
  • BG
    Barry G.
    27 July 2020 @ 14:08
    0 0
    Raoul, you nailed it just in time with ETH and GLXY. They are looking good. Any targets on them both?
  • YJ
    Yuan J.
    28 July 2020 @ 01:12
    0 0
    When you are Julian are on the same page, does it mean trades like long DXY are again the highest quality trade ? However i feel like reflation/inflation trades are super crowded now.
    • YJ
      Yuan J.
      28 July 2020 @ 01:12
      0 0
      correction: *When you are Julian are on the same page
  • JS
    Jim S.
    28 July 2020 @ 20:18
    0 0
    What ticket are you all using for Galaxy, BRPHF? I’m seeing a bunch of different tickets pop up, but this seems to be the right one.
    • JW
      JW2 W.
      2 August 2020 @ 10:56
      0 0
      GLXY - Toronto Stock Exchange
  • Dd
    David d.
    21 August 2020 @ 16:16
    0 0
    is the Etherium Trust (ETHE) a recommended way to invest in Etherium ?