I took a half position with a TLT Sept 20 Call @ $145. There is a Jan 2022 option offered. If I want to mirror Raoul's December 2021 Euro Dollar call with my othere half position how high should I set my TLT strike? Thanks.

Raoul If there is rate cuts starting in the next 3 months, is there greater leaverage to going for the ED with a closer expiry? Say Jun 21 or Dec 20? Thanks in advance.

Hi raoul how much to pay at the maximum for the dec 2021 call you mentioned?

@Raoul, if we had joined you in the Eurodollar positioning for the GE Dec 2020 calls at a 99 strike, should we (a) leave them alone and let them appreciate, or (b) roll them over to the furthest out in time contracts, which appear to be the GE Mar 2021 contracts in IB, or (c) wait to roll them over once the GE Dec 2021 calls are available to roll to, if time/contract terms permit them to roll that far out? Thank you, sir. Regards, John K.

Been watching this TLT and EUR/USD breakout...! Interesting how this is happening even with the repo operations (QE4). Quite telling!

Raoul, what is your opinion on steepener trades ? 2s/10s and ED6/12. Thanks!

Raul - Sorry for the potentially dumb question. You talk about 10 year bonds but TLT is 20 year maturity - how should we think about this? Or your recommendation simply long dated treasuries ?

Can you please explain the risk of loss on the Eurodollar trade. Is there potential to lose the entire investment? Or more than the entire investment? Some guidance is appreciated.

Im going to be sending out an update tomorrow...ASAP. Im going to full risk in bonds immediately.

Raoul, Observation: A year back, like Walther, I also asked about your seemingly synonymous use of the words 10 year treasuries and TLT. I noticed after you replied then that you seemed to stop interchanging the two. I’m glad you are clarifying here that there is a difference (10 years of maturity) between the two. Question: I always wondered that if one is expecting a significant decline in longer term interest rates, why use a 10 year treasury vehicle over TLT?

If the fed takes rates to zero - every dollar in US money market accounts leaves within 90 days. Does the fed just write the check?

Would IBTL be an alternative to TLT for Brits investing in ISAs?

Just some more answers - Why Eurodollars? They are massively liquid, offer big leverage and frankly Im used to using them. Sure you can use Fed funds or an equity that gives short dated bond exposure. Why 10 years? They are massively liquid, offer big leverage and frankly Im used to using them. You can used 30 years TLT or whatever. As you can tell, Im not an exactist. Its whatever works for you. I just use what I know and am comfortable with. Eurodollar options - Yes, I still like them. In the fast moving markets I like my core position as futures. I tend to then layer in options for increased upside but more managed downside risk. How do you protect yourself using so much leverage? I use stops where I am prepared to lose % of NAV on the position. I add all of those up to get the uncorrelated risk that I am running at any one time. So if I have 5 positions all with 2% of NAV at risk and if the shit hits the fan, I should be able to only suffer a max drawdown of 10% (give or take gap risk - which you need to be prepared for). Yes, I like gold and bitcoin but those are bets on systemic issues and are based on a different premise of the End Game, not global slowdown. Different bets. Bonds work best. I don't like shorting equities for this kind of thing as they are still in a bubble and are ever inexact when it comes to trading economic cycles. There will be a time where I will take more equity risk but bonds offer much superior risk adjusted returns. I don't like trading the VIX. It is too volatile, mean reverting and expensive. I'll leave that to the option arb professionals but that is just me. And yes, I love the dollar and will add at some point but I have plenty yon but have been small underwater for a bit in that trade so lets get some profits so we can add on the front foot.