I totally take that point. Every time you try and short the market there are risks. There is a stop, and we acknowledge that the market could just come back. But if JB didnt warn you that he had taken an explicitly bearish view, how is he helping you?

Sorry to hear that. No one is always correct but Julian is always good about recommending stops.

A short is aggressive. Did a stop not work?

Yeah, but will they? So its certainly true that the Fed can rescue the short end. Absolutely. But saying the short end will be pinned down is much the same as telling you to take a pop at the long end. Either the Fed will respond promptly to inflation risks or they wont. If they wont, why are you buying the end at negative real yields. If they will respond promptly why was there no Fed response priced in till whenever?

I get that a lot, although mostly from my wife. Joking aside, scary markets but Im not sure they are falling knives yet. A falling knife is a 3% down day or worse. We havnt got there yet. In fact, EDs were probably closest to matching the falling knife description.

I take your point but there are all sorts of issues with execution of trades. In this case the market gave a tradeable bounce so there was no significant disadvantage to the slight delay from editing. In other cases the execution might be significantly worse because of lags in the editorial process. We do our best, and in this case we moved as quickly as we could.

They got nothing but grief for skipping the editing a few releases ago tho ha. Was a bit late for me as well. Every sector feels like ping pong right now.

Agreed . And I still haven’t found the button for email alerts . Reading 3 hours late ain’t much fun

Yes he is, although the easiest money has been made (isn't that always the way). Instead of breakevens leading the charge, JB suspects that further moves will be more balanced between real yields and breakeven inflation. I think JB expects 10y to tick up in a channel with the Fed steadying the market when it sells off too much. It was interesting that JPow's pushback was not about higher yields (a vote of confidence) but pulling rate hikes forward. But surely that means yields should go higher cos the Fed refuses to curtail the stimulus from fiscal. And god knows the election pledges are pretty chunky and havnt even been hinted at my legislation yet.

Options are a good call. Options on the QQQ are a great way of expressing it. More aggressive traders might choose near the money puts. Less aggressive players might consider put spreads or simply exiting less cherished longs. More structured solutions like SQQQ are quite expensive and very expensive in terms of carry. They are also heavily leveraged. Use with care.

There is SQQQ if you want leverage. It is inverse of NDX or QQQ so buy to bet on fall.

I'm not an advanced investor either. I expressed this trade by buying put option contracts on QQQ ETF (through IBKR). April 16 strike 290. Not sure on the timing of this but I'm not buying a huge amount. If Julian is right, I'll add to this and modify my strike price and date of expiration as needed.

I gather you haven't been watching BTC sink like a stone this week. Trust me, it's not going into BTC. :o)

I would suggest looking for a rebound, but what do I know? Trading is a fiendishly difficult business at the best of times. There was a decent bounce for much of the day on Friday, but it faded late and after the close. One might hope for a bounce in Asia but as far as I can tell they have been selling or hedging in Asian time of late.

I will speak to our colleagues to see how this can be done.

The email alert appears to have been sent about 2 hours late as well.... flash should mean flash, the reasoning had been laid out in a previous reportsend an email with 2 lines of text if necessary, not hard at all

Just to clarify, I really appreciate Julian's hard work and great reports in general - it's just a shame not to get such a time-sensitive piece on time.

For what little its worth, Im not sure it is "too late". How would "too late" be defined? CK. below notes the risk reward given where the NQ sits is pretty well poised. We agree, and we take a negative view of it. So perhaps the way to play it is to identify your preferred support line and whack it if it breaks? I appreciate that we should work on the infrastructure to make sure you get notifications in a timely way, but we were keenly aware of the importance of timeliness and really made an effort to get this out promptly. If it failed, I think we should figure out a better solution. Either way, we always appreciate feedback and we will try and do better going forward.

Lance, a fine point. They nailed both Gold and Oil in that video discussion and both were impromptu. Both excellent and very timely calls.

JL, this is a good point. We are more than happy to get into a dialogue with people either in comments or via email. Please email me and we will try and come up with alternative stop levels. But the very first question would be where would you place the stop if you were interested in this trade? Cos stops reflect personal circumstances as well as objective market levels. How much risk do you want? How aggressive would you play a short in QQQs? My email is harry@MI2Partners.com

Quite so Majed. We can only play the ball as we see it. Same is true for our clients. What we want to do is provide useful guidance. In our view the first step to that is being right. The second step is clarity - if you don't understand what we are saying how is it of any use? And then comes timeliness. If we don't get the first two right the second is useless. Because we cant always be right about the first 2 we use stops. In a way, part of the problem with this call was not just that it arrived late, but that it was substantively correct quite quickly. If the market had rallied in JB's face everyone would have had an even better entry point!

Not sure how you trade but the original stop is 450 points away, by the time the email was sent this had almost doubled. Whether it crashes or bounces after that is irrelevant. It is not impossible to email trade alerts within minutes but you are right it is probably not going to be implemented.