Flash Update – December 18, 2019

Published on: December 18th, 2019

For some time Julian has been itching to sell USDs based on, among other things, the Fed’s policy framework not to raise rates if the economy runs hot, but to cut rates quickly at any sign of weakness. With positive developments on trade last week, the time has come to make a start. Sell USD for the Mexican Peso.

Comments

  • CB
    Charles B.
    18 December 2019 @ 17:08
    2 0
    Julian, Will the dollar going lower affect Raoul's long Eurodollar trade? Charlie
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      18 December 2019 @ 23:26
      3 0
      Charles I don't want to put words in Raoul's mouth. But from my perspective a positive, reflationary correction in the $ i.e. which supports commodities etc wouldn't support the idea of being long Eurodollars
  • LV
    Lewis V.
    18 December 2019 @ 23:30
    2 0
    Julian Banxico meets tomorrow... 1/2 size in front of decision?
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      19 December 2019 @ 00:03
      2 0
      Hi Lewis ultimately risk management has to be your call. However, short term $ weakness vs MXN and various other currencies does look a little extended. I wouldn't be surprised to see a test of the trendline break
  • KK
    Konstantinos K.
    19 December 2019 @ 21:17
    0 0
    Solid call Julien, went long on MX6 Mar20...which is now heading north
  • JA
    Joseph A.
    20 December 2019 @ 06:42
    3 0
    For Julian and Raoul, as a new MI subscriber one thing I was expecting to see with trade recommendations was time horizons with each trade. Can you please consider including this in your future reports? For example with the latest USD/MXN recommendation I see the RRR is 2:1 up to 3:1 but with current Average True Range indicating low volatility at the moment. So I am going to surmise that this is a fairly short term trade set up within what I suspect is a contrary to Raoul's longer term trade idea of being long USD instead of short. Of course difference of opinion here is not solely due to time horizon as per both your recent insights discussion but it must play a part. Trading time horizon is important to know for any trade idea at point of entry even if it starts shorter term and ends up being a home run longer term trade. So I think it should be included in the trade recommendations for clarity, to help avoid confusion and as a possible explanation why your opinions sometimes diverge. I have learned that a typical macro long / short top down bottom up analysis trading portfolio to be in the 1-3 months time horizon and long term trades being anything longer than 3 months. I shall assume you work with a similar definition unless you define it otherwise. If either of you make trade recommendations shorter than 1 month that would be good to know as well. Many thanks for RV over the years I have enjoyed RV TV as an early subscriber and tried to convince friends to sign up to it many times. Surprisingly even when the price dropped folks haven't taken it up. Not sure why not. They have explored the plentiful free content but haven't pulled the trigger yet. Anyway maybe one day they will come around or maybe they know it all already :). Personally I see this MI subscription as giving me hopefully a platform for idea discussion with folks I can't really get the same level of discourse with in my social circles and to alert me to set ups I might otherwise miss because I am not currently full time trading or scanning all markets. I do prefer to have fewer positions held for longer periods as it suits my trading style and lifestyle. Seasons greetings to you all.
    • RM
      Richard M.
      20 December 2019 @ 14:38
      2 0
      Excellent summation to some of my own feelings Joseph! Thanks for taking the time to write this up and post it.
  • TH
    Tim H.
    22 December 2019 @ 10:59
    0 1
    The positions in the current portfolio are contracdicting eachother now. The portfolio says buy UUP, buy AUD and so on. So Go long dollar. Now you say go short dollar which is totally different. However I didnt get any sell updates on the current positions. This is very confusing for me. I expect some more clarity on this, especially for the price we are paying.
    • HH
      Hugh H.
      27 December 2019 @ 18:28
      0 0
      Hi Tim, it seems you are confusing Julian's with Raoul's recommendations. Sometimes they are not in the same boat.
  • CS
    Cameron S.
    5 January 2020 @ 22:32
    0 0
    Aussie dollar completed a daily 9 DeMark, then pulled back nicely. Opportunity for adding more as it retests broken resistance? Or have tensions in the Middle East taken some risk off and will continue to support USD? Any thoughts out there?