Why can’t Trump have his weak dollar? It would make US exports cheaper and foreign imports more expensive, which would likely decrease trade deficit. It might blow up the budget deficit since It may deter purchases of treasuries down the road but I don’t think he cares about that.

Thank you Raoul.

I am not comfortable shorting FX yet so what do you think UUP instead? Thanks much!

Thanks for posting, Raoul! What about $Yen, you have mentioned this in past?

Not Comfortable shorting EEM. Is there any other instrument that can express that view. Looking at option a put spread.

Thanks Raul! I appreciate you including an ETF option (UUP), I know ETFs aren't always the best way to handle a trade but It's much easier for someone like me (never traded currencies, can't trade currencies with my broker, don't want to pay monthly fees to Interactive Brokers / some others). Just adding some more UUP is simple enough for anyone :)

How to size? on a typical fx trade, 8-10x leverage / 1% of portfolio stop? Or do you measure with ATR? And if trading outside majors? Would also appreciate more charting advice for trade management. Thanks for all the great content...

Having just read/analysed a whole shed load of data over the past couple of days, I now tend to think Raoul's view on US Bonds may be the right one. This is also supported by recent work from Peter Brandt (technicals) and Charles Gave (fundamentals). With the rest of the world slowly falling behind the US, when the US does finally crack, where else are investors going to park their money? I would argue, a large amount will head straight to US bonds in an instant.

Raoul, thanks - very helpful. Would you recommend a short position in gold and metals as well?

FYI: Betting on USD strength was something I've jumped on earlier. What worked for me so far is going long USDZAR. There are more factors which will make this pair fly further (I am still in it). Note: this pair is extremely volatile - but very tradeable.

Raoul, thanks for your last flash update. however i think this needs to be more specific. 1) Where do you see Gold going here given your USD view? 2)what liquid instruments to make your suggested trades in USD and TLT you can advise where trade can be done via liquid options, including selling options. 3rd part of this question is abt instruments with liquidity & availability of longer dated options such as 6-12 mths forward, not just very short term dated futures-options as basically is the case for TLT & UUP (short dated & also very wide bid-ask spreads). Thank you

thanks Raoul what is your view on gold if this is the case ? I remember once you mentioned USD and gold MIGHT rise together ! however, this wasn't the case ! im wondering if there is anything to do to hedge gold position( bullion) as USD heading higher . dispite gold being as insurance policy ... losing that much % in just few months is quite awful

this is excellent thanks!

I was uncertain about resubscribing but your recent offerings are strong proof of value and I'm glad I did. Thank you both.

1.5 month later all these ideas did not work out. EEM is not down. USD is down. I have a growing frustration for MI and RV advise and ideas in general....track record seems poor. Sorry but saying as it feels

Hi Raoul I've been listening again to Bass's interviews on China during some long drives I've had to do and I think they're really significant. I'm referring to his interview with you on the currency, and also with Bannon - and it's shocking that Bannon's world view is so poorly or little understood because it's compelling, logical, and convincing. But I have two questions: 1. How do projections for the gold price play into Bass's view that an impending dollar shortage is going to cripple China. Surely they will have anticipated precisely what Bass is expecting, and they will have a mitigation strategy designed to exploit the situation, above and beyond what you two refer to - opening up their financial sector to shove a bunch of bad debt on to America's balance sheet. We don't know how much gold they have, but we do know they have masses and continue to acquire more. Why then, are countries like Canada and the UK failing to shore up their own reserves? Would a gold buying program by either of these countries be seen as somehow disloyal to the US, and the US dollar? What is the rationale for a refusal to insure a nation against currency disruption by at least having some sort of commitment to bullion of various types? This all strikes me as profoundly political, because it's so essential. 2. You seem to imply that the impending dollar shortage you've been talking about now for nearly two years may be politically motivated a la Russia. Is this correct? If so, can we please hear more about this. And about anything at all to do with expectations of how China anticipates any type of movement towards convertibility, which you guys believe is inevitable, for sound reasons, seems like. This all just strikes me as stupendously important but it's never discussed, and I wonder if that's because the mainstream media remains so adamantly allergic to anything Trump they cannot stand to contemplate the basis or rationale for his world view, and thus, the world is being deprived of necessary information to allow for preparation for what sound like a fairly seismic shift. I realise there are other factors here, but restricting the frame to yuan convertibility makes sense given the daily drip feed of news on China credit at the moment, especially in the context of trade. You have provided really essential context on these issues. Please continue to pursue this issue, it would be appreciated greatly.