Compare And Contrast

Published on: December 14th, 2018

2017 set records for bull market longevity and low volatility. Since Powell’s 4th October 2018 “nowhere near neutral” faux pas, we have entered an entirely different market environment. Expect 2019 to be a year to sell rallies. Dip buyers must remember to sell the grind higher.

Comments

  • JQ
    JACK Q.
    15 December 2018 @ 05:18
    8 0
    Bond view with Raoul has finally aligned! Julian - Do u think now is the time to step on the gas and press bond longs? Or still decent chance for backup in yields before committing big?
    • JQ
      JACK Q.
      21 December 2018 @ 00:41
      2 0
      Thanks Julian! Flooring it! Just a follow up - why not 2s right now?
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      20 December 2018 @ 16:54
      3 0
      Jack its time. However, my preference to jump on the 4-5yr sector not the very long end, which relatively still trades poorly
  • MW
    Marco W.
    15 December 2018 @ 09:38
    0 0
    Simply marvelous! Has a feeling that global bonds now are like JGB in 2000 TMT bubble.
  • HT
    Henry T.
    19 December 2018 @ 08:31
    1 0
    Looks like it is increasingly likely that US 10Y yield will come down..great call on that. But does that necessary translate to a broad dollar weakness, given that investors are also likely to hold cash in light of a major US equities correction? What are your views on this @julian @raoul?
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      20 December 2018 @ 16:58
      1 0
      Henry traditionally we should get one final up move in the dollar i.e. a "risk-off" dollar rally as stocks etc accelerate lower and we get a flight to safety.
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    19 December 2018 @ 19:12
    1 0
    Excellent call Julian, I’ve never seen an MI trade move so quickly and with such conviction. Big thumbs up
  • RM
    Richard M.
    24 December 2018 @ 15:02
    2 0
    ***Julian***, it looks like one of your favorite long-term indicators is about to give a sell signal (the 5-20-50 weekly crossover signal), looks like it should confirm the signal (the 20 crossing the 50 week) this week or next. So the question is, do you just plunge in with a short here or do you wait for a rebound back towards the 50MA (or 20MA?) and then when that fails jump on? I know that's a pretty subjective question and that you really need to wait to see how/if the rebound occurs to get a true read on it but just asking for your thoughts at this time. BTW, have a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!!! Thanks for all the insight you have provided this year and looking forward to much more in 2019 (I think it's going to be a heck of a ride in 19)!
    • RM
      Richard M.
      27 December 2018 @ 15:11
      0 0
      Thanks for replying Julian! So just jump in now and hang on for the ride (and add to the shorts on the probable upcoming bounce in the first quarter). Thank you for giving a clear and concise answer with no fudging (something uncommon in the investment business) it is much appreciated! Have a great New Year!
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      26 December 2018 @ 17:57
      0 0
      Hi Richard, yes we are very close. If you look at both 2000 and 2008, they suggest that early in Q1 we should get a bounce, which is contained by the 20 or 50 week. But importantly, these occur from lower levels. So while you can use them as opportunities to add to shorts you don't want to use they as entry points as you'll miss a lot of the fall.