Comments
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BTWith all due respect, Raoul was recommending short equities in December "It is Time" and not last summer when it was time to put them on. Telling us that he made a lot by putting on shorts last summer, but he was not recommending shorting then, is a bit of revisionist history. Fortunately I followed HFT into shorts and made good money. Julian's Netflix call was outstanding, as was Raoul's bond call. But the short equity call was wrong in December - that was the low!
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SDThanks. I just think you're ignoring political risk as a factor in all of this. Look at what happened in Sri Lanka overnight. That was a complex and exceptional event. Not many people or groups can pull off something like that. Political risk is rising, globally. It feels to me like we're on the cusp of a major event, or series of events, which will overtake your analysis - or take it forward far more quickly than anticipated.
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JLusual banter, by now it will be a miracle if anyone has made money on the aggregate of your calls, great macro views and insight into the future but if anyone dared to replicate a portfolio following your trades it wouldn't be pretty to put it mildly
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VDThis is the reason why I don’t agree the fundamentalist has the answers to the behaviour of the stock market. You can’t take a bag of fundamental charts to represent the composite consciousness of the indexes and then after paying thousands for a macro insider subscription have the writer of this article spanked by the stock indexes and have him tell us not to play equities. It’s not so much what he makes or does not make or losses, but I’ve noticed the writer of this article has missed massive massive opportunities by taking a strictly bearish view. His true return = return in bond market + opportunity cost of not being Long indexes for 4 months + cost of stop outs which turns the whole equation vastly negative.
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TBHindsight is 20/20 guys. Of course it sucks to have missed the index rally (note: who hasn't), but had you sized your portfolio accordingly between fixed income longs and equity shorts I'm pretty sure the future expected value of this portfolio would have been one of the best. In the current scenario you would still have made some money. Had disaster struck you would have made a lot, but would have been pasted in a portfolio heavily overweight equities. MI isn't about portfolio construction though, but market research. Having said that, more regular updates on trade recommendations would be welcome - 5 lines at the end of each release would suffice.
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BHWith all due respect and to my very limited understanding of the market, the holy grail of trading macro is not only about interpretation of the current data, but also the reasonable prediction of the future data, making bets on the difference from the expectation of others. So it would be great to see some detailed forecast of the data. For example, for your dollar bull case, you are talking about dollar shortage. Could you tell us what data you are using to gauge it, and how would they possibly change when you believe things evolve to your favor? If that happens, what would those countries possibly act on it?
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ASA couple suggestions: 1. I'd really appreciate a table of all the trade recommendations w/ sample benchmark of p&l, wether it stopped out or is still open, etc. Vs 60/40 & HFRI Macro, for example. Often there is reference to past trades, but it's hard to keep track. Often trades were recommended, but not mentioned again if they didn't work out. Or some were just mentioned as things to think about, but then brought up as trades that worked. This feels like cherry picking. It's fine that there's been no alpha or even positive return since inception of this service (a short time span), but I'd like to be able to track the recommendations more easily. 2. On the flip side, if we're looking at this as just pure information to think about--we all get the Daily Shot, follow the markets & economic data and know consensus hedge fund positioning. Please focus more on what we don't know. Non-consensus views, possible surprises--things not already priced in. 3. I see indicators mentioned like DeMark showing "sell" all the time. These rarely seem to work, but perhaps we're missing context. Can we see a study/backtest with relevant metrics? This way we can tell if mentioned indicators are just temporarily in bad times (normal), or if they've never really worked well.
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SRI think some of the previous comments are being rather unfair to Raoul. I personally made some very hefty profits on the bond trade and out of Eurodollar calls. But at the same time I wasn't in equities. Its just as important knowing in what to invest as knowing what not to invest in. If you have been in the bond trade and short equities trade then yes you may not have made much, if any money. But if you were in just the bond and eurodollar trades you would have made some hefty profits. I think people just need to spend more time doing their own research instead of expecting Raoul and Julian to deliver perfectly timed trades - that's not what MI is about. Yes, I know it takes a heck of a lot of time, but you only get out what you put in.
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VGI followed Raoul’s conviction recommendations in Dec 2018 on buying XOM Puts and KRE: both of which positions lost me the premium paid. I am disappointed that there is no mechanism to feedback to readers on when to exit positions or a good sense on time horizons when taking such conviction calls as in Dec 2018. My two cents as a disappointed member of the service...
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RMBeen an RV and MI sub since the beginning, wanted to see what I could learn from these folks. I think Raoul and Julian are both very smart guys, and I have learned some useful things over time. But, and here always comes the but, I agree with a lot of the comments below. There is little accountability for recommendations, no published track record, no model portfolio. Ideas offered have been hit or miss. Not clear to me at least, if there is any real edge to be had here. Curious to see more comments from other subscribers.
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JWI’m a MI subscriber for 6 months or so, and I look forward to each release. I believe it’s a great concept and I’ve gained some perspective from my time with the service. I also have to agree with the disappointed subscribers who feel let down by the trade ideas and seeming lack of accountability. It seems generally that the fellas try to own their misses, and I understand that their big money clients will get a head start on the research. However, the fact that Raoul’s equity shorts dated from August-ish and his ‘big boy pants’ letter was dated Dec 20 is too much to bear (so to speak). Please let me know if I’m off base with this criticism, because I’m beginning to feel suspicious. This feels like an important time for MI, and I’ll be watching this comments space every day for a while to learn what everyone else is thinking.
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AMI am a long time reader of MI. One of the things that contributes to reader frustration is differences in time horizon. I get the sense most readers expect trade ideas with specific entry and exit points whereas Raoul tends to give more broad based recommendations that might better be interpreted as long term themes than specific recommendations to enter or exit a position. I recall Raoul stating before that the advantage a retail investor has over Wall Street is time horizon. To fully capitalize on this advantage, I think it's necessary to do nothing from time to time. As an aside, while it is true that the price action of the S&P 500 in Q4 and Q1 could have been traded for tremendous gain, it's also true that the year over year picture does not look good and indeed I think 10 year and 30 year US bond returns have looked relatively good compared to the S&P over the past 15 months. I do agree with some of the comments about timing on trades, but I am personally not subscribing to MI for specific trade recommendations.
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VDI think Julian deserves some credit here. I remember in December, Julian said that Amazon could likely reach 1,900 which then tests the bull trap rally (not quoting word for word). I believe he mentioned into spring. Well it happened and the point I’m trying to make is that I don’t think the markets are at a wait and see juncture. There could be a change of character coming soon.
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JKDXY last 97.84
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MGRaoul if dollar continues to break higher how does this change your view if at all about equities from here?
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TKDXY passed 98 ;-)