Tales From the Hive: Looking for the Upside
- Real Vision
- February 17, 2023
This conversation is frankly jaw-dropping. AI is already here, and most investors don’t yet see the dangers and opportunities this runaway technology creates.
Our advice: Skip this blog post and go straight to the video… Your ability to prepare for the future could depend on it.
At Real Vision, we’ve been around long enough to know that some of the greatest ideas and most interesting thinking come from you — our members.
In this report, we’ll share our findings from the Looking for the Upside survey:
- What investment ideas you’re excited about
- What you’re most concerned about
- Where you think the crowd is
Our hope is that you’ll find it useful to see what the rest of this band of merry Visionaries is thinking… because at Real Vision, we sure as hell always do.
Introduction
In January this year, Real Vision launched Looking for the Upside, a series designed to search for opportunities that aren’t getting covered in the sea of doom and gloom.
As our co-founder Damian Horner said: “There’s nothing better than scaring the shit out of people to drive up ratings and subscriptions… That’s why we’re looking for the upside. We want to bring you fresh ideas, but perhaps even more importantly, stretch your thinking and your investment horizon.”
So far on Looking for the Upside, we’ve had on experts in their field talking about everything from the renaissance of nuclear energy to the “anti-Davos” trade to investing in farmland… and there’s more to come.
(Real Vision members can catch up on Looking for the Upside right here.)
Now, we’ve had some great ideas and thinking on Looking for the Upside, but we’ve been around long enough to know that some of the greatest ideas and most interesting thinking come from you.
So, at the start of February 2023, we sent out a survey to the Real Vision Hive Mind:
- Pro All Access members
- Pro Crypto members
- Pro Macro members
- Plus members
- Essential members
- Crypto members
- Non-members in the Real Vision universe
Over the course of 2 weeks, more than 2,000 people took the survey, which gave us a pretty great Hive Mind data set to dig through.
In this report, we’ll share our findings from the Looking for the Upside survey: What investment ideas you’re excited about, what you’re most concerned about, where you think the crowd is.
Our hope is that you’ll find it useful to see what the rest of this band of merry Visionaries is thinking… because at Real Vision, we sure as hell always do.
Enjoy.
The Real Vision Team
ONE: Optimism Vs. Pessimism
The Question: In general, do you tend to be more optimistic or pessimistic?
The Hive Mind Says…
Optimistic:75.5%
Pessimistic:24.5%
The “Huh, That’s Quite Interesting” Bit
- Pro Crypto members are by far the most optimistic, coming in at 89%
- On the other end of the scale, Pro Macro members are the least optimistic, at 66%
- Right in the middle are the Pro All Access members at 74%…
- While Plus and Essential are at 70% and 71% respectively
- So if you’re deeper in macro land, you tend to be a bit more pessimistic…
TWO: Bullish Vs. Bearish
The Question: Right now, are you more bullish or bearish about 2023?
The Hive Mind Says…
Bullish:55.5%
Bearish:44.5%
The “Huh, That’s Quite Interesting” Bit
- Pro Crypto members are again leading the way, with 65% saying they are more bullish than bearish about 2023 — followed by Real Vision Crypto members at 63% and Pro All Access members at 60%
- On the other end of the scale, Essential members and non-members are split, with 51% saying they are bullish
- And Plus members are slightly more bullish, at 55%
- So while Pro Crypto skewed the overall result into bullish territory, it’s a pretty divided take across the board
THREE: Investment Ideas
The Question: What investment idea do you think people are sleeping on right now?
The Hive Mind Says…
The “Huh, That’s Quite Interesting” Bit
- Non-members, Plus members, and Pro All Access members mention commodities more than the average
- Real Vision Crypto members are the only ones who list “real estate” enough to enter their top 10 most-mentioned
- Pro All Access, Pro Crypto, and Essential mention India much more than the average
- While Pro Macro, Essential, and non-members mention China enough to enter their top 10 most-mentioned
And the Piñata (Interesting and/or Unusual Ideas From the Hive)
Robotics, Morocco, music NFTs, LatAm, online mental health support, biotech, psilocybin, decentralized digital advertising exchanges (eg., Alkimi), collectible art, Australia, Vietnam, “anything to do with re-shoring,” 3d printing, farmland, lithium, baby bonds, and preferred stock.
FOUR: Exciting Times…
The Question: What are you most excited about?
The Hive Mind Says…
The “Huh, That’s Quite Interesting” Bit
- Gold made the top 3 for Pro Macro members, behind crypto and AI
- Pro Crypto members shared the same top 2, but their number 3 is “learning”
- It’s not surprising that crypto made every membership’s top 3…
- But what might be surprising is that so did AI
- Though excitement about AI was often accompanied by words like “terrified” and “concerned”
- Shout out to the respondent who said, “Meeting the RVPC geniuses, making friends, finding and participating in money-making endeavors.”
FIVE: …And Worrying Times
The Question: What are you most worried about in 2023 from an investing perspective?
The Hive Mind Says…
The “Huh, That’s Quite Interesting” Bit
- Pro Macro and Plus members are the only ones whose number 1 worry is what the Fed does
- Pro Crypto members are over-worried about a black swan event compared to the average, and are… under-worried(?!) about inflation
- Pro Macro members are the only ones who list “bonds” enough to enter their top 10 most-mentioned
- Outside of direct investing, time is a concern for a lot of you, summed up by the respondent who said, “That as a beginner, I will not learn enough to be in time to get in early/catch the upside at the right time and miss the opportunities/remain financially poor”
- Special thanks to the respondent who said, “Real Vision 2.0 😀” (we’re excited too…!)
SIX: Enough Already
The Question: What are you fed up hearing people/media/advisors talk about?
The Hive Mind Says…
The “Huh, That’s Quite Interesting” Bit
- Recession took first position across all memberships apart from Pro All Access (who are most fed up of hearing about the Fed)
- Pro Crypto and Real Vision Crypto are fed up hearing about FTX and scams, which didn’t make the top list for any other memberships
- Plus are the only members fed up enough of hearing about ESG for it to enter their top list
- While talk about hard vs. soft landing made everyone’s top list
- Hat tip to the respondent who said, “Tune most of that sh*t out… that is why I pay for RV…”
SEVEN: Where’s the Crowd?
The Question: What do you think is the most crowded trade right now?
The Hive Mind Says…
The “Huh, That’s Quite Interesting” Bit
- Energy takes the number 1 spot for Essential, Pro Macro, and Plus members
- While the number 1 crowded trade according to Real Vision Crypto members and non-members is AI
- Pro Crypto and Plus are the only members who mention China enough to the top list
- Shout out to the philosophical respondent who said “fear” is the most crowded trade, “but not everyone is afraid of the same thing.”
Random Cool S**t You Said About Looking for the Upside
If you haven’t had a chance to watch Looking for the Upside yet (or couldn’t find it), here’s what some survey respondents had to say about the series…
“Fantastic. I only agree with some of the ideas but it’s broadening my natural bearish biases.”
“A lot of interesting knowledge is shared, which helps me to have different perspectives on the economy.”
“Very good, especially for pessimistic people like me :-)”
“It is f*ckin brilliant.”
“Your content is great. I gave my son a subscription because I like RV so much.”
“I really enjoyed both Maggie and Rick Rule and also [the] Andreas Steno Larsen interview with Marco Papic, very smart people, great show… I’m also a big fan of Andreas and his new show STENO’S SIGNALS and Buy-Side Meets Sell-Side… great first interview.”
“Inspiring!”
“Love Real Vision. [I’m] not a trader, I am a VC, [and] learning trading and more in-depth macro world is fascinating.”
“I like to be exposed to different ideas for me to think about.”
“I love it. It’s my favorite of the new segments. Although maybe equal 1st with Steno’s Signals.”
“They are really good. I like how to play it as well, it really helps think how we could apply it.”
“As with all Real Vision content, I always come away with better information to make more informed decisions and to help form better opinions.”
CONCLUSION
While there are a sh*t ton of clouds on the horizon in 2023, there’s a ton of opportunity, too.
Thanks to everyone who participated in the survey — apart from helping us all get a picture of what the Hive Mind is thinking, we were also lucky enough to get a lot of great suggestions for guests and topics.
And we’d love to get your thoughts on this report at essential@realvision.com.
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